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July 24, 2008Midwest crops look deceptively good
Analysis of: Corn and Soybean Production Prospects Improving | www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
The effects of late planting, cool-wet soils in May, and flooding in June can't be overcome by favorable weather in July and August. USDA's yield and production estimates may well turn out to be on the optimistic side when we finally get the crop in the bin.
July 24, 2008Improving weather and falling commodity prices may keep RFS intact
Analysis of: EPA delays RFS waiver ruling | www.ethanolproducer.com
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
The request for a partial waiver in the RFS by Texas Gov. Perry is likely to be denied, largely due to a 25% reduction in corn prices caused by favorable weather in the Midwest. This corn crop, however, will be extremely difficult to get an accurate estimate on prior to getting it out of the field,...
July 15, 2008
Higher food prices here to stay
Analysis of: Higher food prices are here to stay | www.guardian.co.uk
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Higher food prices are here to stay | www.guardian.co.uk
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Forget the political aspects of potential food shortages brought upon by Bio fuel cropping. They do play a part in what is happening and in particular in the USA. However consider this when looking for reasons for such a drastic shift in cropping, Net farm income has been less than booming for the last...
July 9, 2008Ethanol import tariff is now on the table, but move by Brazilian sugar industry could backfire
Analysis of: Brazil launches campaign to remove ethanol tariff | www.ethanolproducer.com
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
Changes in the ethanol production subsidy and import tariff would be an excellent way to moderate the increases in the short-term price of corn, easing the pain for the US livestock industry. But any change in these policies will have long term impacts on the biofuels sector. These changes...
July 2, 2008Wheat Stocks Building, But Not Corn and Soybeans
Analysis of: Wheat features drop on US grain report | www.abc.net.au
Author: Joe Victor, Vice President/Marketing, Allendale Inc
Less than normal quarterly use of wheat builds US ending stocks however record quarterly use of US soybean and corn is expected to continue to keep at the knifes edge.
July 1, 2008Failure to adjust policy now to lower feed costs will permanently change the US livestock industry.
Analysis of: American Feed Industry Association Urges EPA to Temporarily Waive RFS Mandate | www.grainnet.com
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
An over-emphasis on ethanol has combined with a poor production year and a major speculative push on commodity prices to push livestock net returns into the red. Animal feed has long been US corn and soybeans primary source of demand, but high feed costs, with no way to push up the selling price...
June 27, 2008Five percent increase (or less) in Brazilian soy acreage likely, unless fertilizer prices can be brought down in Brazil.
Analysis of: Brazil May Seize Fertilizer Deposits as Prices Surge | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
Just like this time last year, traders in Chicago may believe that Brazilian farmers are poised to significantly expand soybean acreage, as they have moved prices above $15 per bushel. However, just as they misjudged them last year, they may be doing it again, as fertilizer prices have doubled,...
June 27, 2008CRP acres coming back, but how many will depend on what changes USDA does, or doesn't make in the program.
Analysis of: Options for the Conservation Reserve Program | www.card.iastate.edu
Author: Philip Corzine, Founder and General Manager, South American Soy LLC
Expiring contracts may add two million acres a year to planted area in the US, but don't look for many contracts to be "broken" unless they were recently signed, as the penalty's are too severe, even with high commodity prices. It seems likely that given the current situation with a poor crop in the...
June 26, 2008Comments on Bunge and Corn Products International Merger
Analysis of: Bunge Should Jump from Here | seekingalpha.com
Author: Gary Drimmer, President, Drimmer & Associates International
It is a win-win marriage made in Brazil. The timing is perfect to take advantage of record stock prices and commodity prices, though wet corn milling might have some problems next year.
June 23, 2008Easing Ethanol Mandates and Opening the CRP- Possible Solutions to High Cron and Soybean Prices
Analysis of: U.S. May Free Up More Land for Corn Crops | www.nytimes.com
Author: Gary Drimmer, President, Drimmer & Associates International
There are possibly 4-6 million acres lost this year due to flooding in the Midwest. This has been enough to force corn, soybean and some meat prices to record prices this month. If prices rise further due to a reduction in yields due to a hot dry spell during pollination, will the government be forced...
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