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GLG News by Agriculture Consultants

Philip Corzine, General Manager

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Failure to adjust policy now to lower feed costs will permanently change the US livestock industry.

July 1, 2008

American Feed Industry Association Urges EPA to Temporarily Waive RFS Mandate | www.grainnet.com

An over-emphasis on ethanol has combined with a poor production year and a major speculative push on commodity prices to push livestock net returns into the red.  Animal feed has long been US corn and soybeans primary source of demand, but high feed costs, with no way to push up the selling price of their products, has created a situation that will soon, if not corrected, turn into a significant liquidation of the US pork industry.  To push up commodity supplies, changes need to be made now in the US CRP program rules to push up 2009 planted acres.  In addition, (possibly) temporary waivers in the ethanol subsidy and or import tariff should be considered to slow the conversion of corn into ethanol, keeping those supplies available for feed, and helping to ease the price of livestock feed. 

Philip Corzine, General Manager

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Five percent increase (or less) in Brazilian soy acreage likely, unless fertilizer prices can be brought down in Brazil.

June 27, 2008

Brazil May Seize Fertilizer Deposits as Prices Surge | www.bloomberg.com

Just like this time last year, traders in Chicago may believe that Brazilian farmers are poised to significantly expand soybean acreage, as they have moved prices above $15 per bushel.  However, just as they misjudged them last year, they may be doing it again, as fertilizer prices have doubled, and have brought potential net returns on Brazilian soy back down enough that a significant expansion is currently unlikely, unless fertilizer costs can be reduced, or prices go significantly higher, very soon.

Philip Corzine, General Manager

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

CRP acres coming back, but how many will depend on what changes USDA does, or doesn't make in the program.

June 27, 2008

Options for the Conservation Reserve Program | www.card.iastate.edu

Expiring contracts may add two million acres a year to planted area in the US, but don't look for many contracts to be "broken" unless they were recently signed, as the penalty's are too severe, even with high commodity prices. It seems likely that given the current situation with a poor crop in the fields (flooding and late planting) and high prices, changes in the program are somewhat likely, and if they occur, they will have some market impact.

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Comments on Bunge and Corn Products International Merger

June 26, 2008

Bunge Should Jump from Here | seekingalpha.com

It is a win-win marriage made in Brazil. The timing is perfect to take advantage of record stock prices and commodity prices, though wet corn milling might have some problems next year.

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Easing Ethanol Mandates and Opening the CRP- Possible Solutions to High Cron and Soybean Prices

June 23, 2008

U.S. May Free Up More Land for Corn Crops | www.nytimes.com

There are possibly 4-6 million acres lost this year due to flooding in the Midwest. This has been enough to force corn, soybean and some meat prices to record prices this month. If prices rise further due to a reduction in yields due to a hot dry spell during pollination, will the government be forced to take action to mitigate the impact on food inflation?

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Who IS Going To Pick Up the Tabs From Crop Damage

June 18, 2008

Crop Insurers Brace for Pain | www.businessweek.com

Flooding across the Midwest is causing billions of dollars of crop damage as corn and soybean crops are killed or washed away. What had looked as a stellar year for farmers throughout the Midwest will result in some major losers, starting with farmers and livestock producers, and continuing with crop insurance companies and the U.S government that back those policies.

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Argentine Government Continue to Tango with Farmers- Viva the Strike

June 16, 2008

Argentine Farmers Resume Export Tax Protests | www.allheadlinenews.com

The Argentine farmer strike continue. It has been 100 days with on and off again strikes, with truckers and housewives joining the protests. Exports as well as domestic agricultural processing has been stopped again, putting additional pressure on soybeans in the US and the Argentine Government.

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Rain Rain Everywhere, But Where are the Corn and Soybeans?

June 16, 2008

Flooding a 'brutal business partner' for farmers | www.thonline.com

The record rains and flooding in Iowa will result in a further drop in corn and soybean production this year, with estimates of up to  3 million acres and 20% of the Iowa crops lost. This has already caused a run up in corn, soybeans and wheat prices and a drop in many companies' stocks, including ADM, Corn Products International, Tyson, Smithfield and Verasun. There are a few winners, such as Monsanto, Mosaic and Potash, as they will sell more of their products at possibly a higher price over the next 12 months. These higher prices will have an impact on consumers around the world and will force additional inflation among the poorest countries.

John KrierPresidentJLK GLOBAL What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Why Oil is a Classic Commodity Bubble

June 11, 2008

Why oil prices will tank | money.cnn.com

After 32 years in the commodity business as a trader, administrator, and analyst, I have seen hundreds of cash and futures markets tops and bottoms. They always react the same with rare exceptions.  The volatility increases in the the more liquid futures markets  with breathtaking ups and downs that have absolutely no relation to cash fundamentals.  Traders will tell you that futures are only going up because of tightness of supply and increase in demand from swiftly emerging markets like China. On the surface this is true but a closer look would belie this kind of "conventional wisdom"  AAA has been reporting drops in aggregate mileage driven in the US since last October and it is excelerating. The last monthly report showed 4% YOY. China is temporarily hoarding diesel due to the Olympics and now the earthquake. Whenever the market shows weakness you will see Iran rattling sabers.Gasoline stocks are increasing.  When the "top" repeatedly fails the crash will set in: 1-2 months   

Gary Drimmer, President

Gary DrimmerPresidentDrimmer & Associates International What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

When it Rains it Pours- What is Going to Happen to The US Corn and SOybean Crops

June 9, 2008

Climate plants a wet one. Record moisture reported across state | www.columbiatribune.com

The midwest has had exceptional amounts of rain since last December leading to major delays in the seeding and emergence of the corn and soybean crops. La Niña has been blamed for the cool wet weather, if it is disappearing what type of summer and crop will we have.

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