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GLG News by Agricultural Finance Experts

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March 3, 2008
Driving with the rear-view mirror - Recession Fears Realized
Analysis of: Analysts give CIOs advice on weathering recession | www.infoworldmagazine.com
Author: James Butler, President, Rigley Financial Corporation
The Economist recently described specific events that would lead one to believe that the U.S. Economy is already in the throws of a recession, yet the nay-sayers (including our illustrious President) state that there is still some signs of life negating this apparent event. I feel that like the 90's,...
March 3, 2008
Remember the old Wall Street adage: "When they raid the whorehouse, they take all the girls"
Analysis of: Here come more financiers' writedowns | money.cnn.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Simply, writedowns do not overstate the extent of problems at financial firms.  Yes, ultimately the coming "correction" will be overdone (given human nature, most are), but we just getting started (that is, expect a long, sharp recession) -- so things are going to get much ...
February 21, 2008
Germany confronts the worst financial crisis since 1931
Analysis of: German State-Owned Banks on Verge of Collapse | www.spiegel.de
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Six months ago, BaFin President Jochen Sanio warned that the "worst financial crisis since 1931" was unfolding.  Simply, I concur.
February 20, 2008
Expect more bad news from Credit Suisse
Analysis of: Credit Suisse Strips $1B From 1q Profits | biz.yahoo.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
More bad news could pave the way for further buy-ins by foreign investors, such as the Qatar Investment Authority.  "The final determination of these reductions will depend on further results of our review and continuing market developments," the bank said.  Read: Expect more bad news. ...
February 15, 2008
Expect at least four very bad quarters for Morgan
Analysis of: Morgan Stanley: The Riskiest Bank on the Street | seekingalpha.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Morgan's stock will continue to decline.
February 8, 2008
The monoline insurance business model is faulty
Analysis of: MBIA to Raise Additional $750 Million of Capital | www.bloomberg.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The monolines have effectively guaranteed the solvency of our modern asset structures.  The size of the asset-backed market that the monolines insured in recent years is in the trillions of dollars.  Any short-term bailout is merely an illusion.
February 6, 2008
The market for leveraged buyouts will dry up for the next one to two years in the wake of the credit crisis
Analysis of: Private equity investment returns slow down | www.financialnews-us.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The market for leveraged buyouts will dry up for the next one to two years in the wake of the credit crisis.
January 30, 2008
Expect at least four very bad quarters for Morgan
Analysis of: Morgan Stanley Reclassifies Assets, Receives Subpoenas on Subprime Debt | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
"Morgan Stanley expects several more quarters before credit markets return to more normal activity, and structured credit markets could be challenged for an extended period, the company's chief financial officer said."  Challenged.  The FBI is investigating, lawsuits are brewing (such as the...
January 28, 2008
Monoline insurance companies, such as Ambac and MBIA, are in terrible shape -- and the problems are much worse than most realize
Analysis of: Word Of Bond Insurer Bailout Plan Premature: Says Dinallo | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
First, ratings downgrades are just a matter of time.  Secondly, we face a long period of uncertainty (that is, no one is really sure who owes what and to whom, et cetera) and pain -- a mess that institutions are going to have to unwind in order to evaluate and properly...
January 25, 2008
Ambac and other bond insurers face "massive losses over the next few quarters" that will test their ability to raise new capital
Analysis of: Ambac Works To Add Capital After $3B Loss | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Bond insurers will be hard pressed to survive mounting losses on CDOs and other securities that they guarante.  Egan-Jones estimates that Ambac losses may reach $4.3 billion.

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