Summary
It is not enough to just run new transmission links to connect renewable power. There is a need for rights of way, new substations, new control software and the ability to balance the market demand with renewable energy production.
Analysis
To put the Pickens' Plan in place would take dozens of new transmission links that would run from the upper midwest and the great plains to the each and west coasts. These links will be like the railroads of the 1940s and 1950, requiring the ability to cross literally thousands of property owners land. In addition we will need to build substations and other infrastructure to support these lines. A conservative estimate is over $100 billion dollars to put the links in place in the US alone.
The wind only blows sometimes and people will want power at times it does not. The capacity factor of a typical wind farm is about 35% - so 65% of the time it does not make power. People will want power during that time, so we will need to scatter wind farms to try to get them to cover for each other. Studies in Europe show that for a few days each year the wind does not blow anywhere with the right speed to support wind power. So just scattering the wind farms and adding more links is not enough.
Solar works when the sun shines and we have proven that we can store the heat efficiently - so we may be able with very large solar installations to solve this issue, but the best solar locations are not in the same places the wind farms would be best placed.
That means that we will have to build yet more transmission links, switch yards and substations to allow the long distance transmission to the east coast to take power from any source.
Even with all of this, we still need to match demand with supply. For 100 years the electric industry has been a demand following industry, you flip a switch and we will make more. In the future we will have to match demand to supply. From the largest industrial company to the smallest residential customer everyone will have to think about how to modify how they use electricity.
Transmission links will be important, but they are just one step in a very complex process that will completely transform not just the electric industry, but all of society. It will for many be a very painful change.
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
