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July 30, 2008

iPhone is really not a big deal

Analysis of: Verizon Says iPhone Has Had Minimal Impact | www.ipodobserver.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Afarin Bellisario, DSc, MS
Founder and President, Transtrategy, Inc
Implications: Verizon business appears to be expanding as a result of strength in wireless and FiOS, and not be effected by iPhone.  This confirm the fundumentals of the market and trends.

Analysis: Verizon statements and the end of quarter results simply confirmed what everybody in the business already knew: 
    1. People (especially young ones now forming their own households) are moving away from landline and into wireless only,
 
    2- DSL is dying a slow death, and

    3- iPhone is a drop in the bucket when it comes to 1 billion unit/yr cell phone business

One the first point, it doesn't take a poll or see people under 35 are not getting a landline.  On the second point, with all teh web based content and downloads, DSL simply can not keep up.  In fact as economy detriorates and price of gas makes driving unafforadable, people would start more web based business, buy more on line, and rely more on the diwnloadable content for entertainment.  On the 3rd point, we always knew iPhone is a "niche"product for a very niche target.  What is amazing to me is what hype can do, making even very smart investors believe that a one trick pony like Apple is worth more than a 100 years old, diversified and profitable GE. 
 

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
AT&T Wireless will reign supreme with iPhone but co-exist with Verizon
August 4, 2008, Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Apple iPhone is a Humongous, Game-Changer: Read this to Understand Why
August 1, 2008, Author: Kenneth Eisner, Principal, Eisner Consulting
Verizon Versus AT&T
July 30, 2008, Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Verizon iPhone No Impact was for the Wrong Quarter
July 29, 2008, Author: Joe Weingarten, Executive Director, Macintosh Reseller Association

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