history repeats itself

Implications: Each time a smoking ban is implemented, the results are usually the same

Analysis: It is interesting to look at the history of when smoking bans are implemented and what impact that has on the industries revenues. If you went back and looked at Delaware and their 3 racinos, the north carolina cherokee casino, casino windsor and now most recently Atlantic City you will see similiar results. Each of these markets experienced a decline for 12-18 months (ac is entering month 11) and then the markets sees a rebound back to historical levels. What this means is that there is a stagnation in the market for approximately two years and then the upward migration begins again. Now, not only did Colorado go non smoking but so did Illinois and to a greater extent they have a bigger problem. Let's be honest where are the Black Hawk, Cripple Creek, and Central City customers going to migrate to? I have a great problem in believing that they would jump a plane to vegas just to smoke but who knows. In the case of Illinois they have competition right across the border in Indiana and Missouri, so the probability of those customers moving are more likely. It will take time to truly see the impact of the smoking ban in Colorado, we need to get out of the unpredictable winter season and then take a look at the year over year numbers. I do know that many of the Colorado casinos have added very nice smoking lounges next to their casino area. Whether this is enough to attract their smoking gaming customers to the same level as in the past is yet to be seen