Summary
The demand for Amorphous silicon (a-Si) is driven by the Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) market. a-Si compared to Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) is better suited for manufacturing in complex forms and shapes found in building materials and construction. Combined with the fact that a-Si efficiencies are far less than c-Si, existing solar demand for utility and commercial scale projects should not compete against each other.
Analysis
As increased manufacturing of both crystalline silicon (c-Si) and amorphous silicon (a-Si) products continue a surplus of solar products should be available in the short term. Lowering the end use material pricing for all solar products. However as increased demand is expected as the result of global escalation of incentives for solar products and economic stability returns to the marketplace, the growth of solar products should continue to be exponential.
Demand for solar is presently driven by utility scale solar projects with some commercial scale units. Power providers are being forced to meet newly imposed Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in each state and Green Executive Officers (GEO's) are changing the landscape of balance sheets by self promoting these products.
c-Si is more efficient then a-Si, hence those utility scale plants will be continue to be constructed using c-Si modules (or the even more efficient solar thermal systems).
With regard to a-Si products, demand will be found in the Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) marketplace. BIPV is composed of manufacturing solar products that closely resemble existing building materials which can be incorporated via existing building trades. The BIPV market is still in its infancy, with companies like Applied Solar (APSO.OB) and UniSolar (ENER) making a-Si products, such as roof tiles and peel-n-stick solar.
As a whole the entire solar marketplace (utility and building) occupies less then 1% of the overall power generation mix. With global goals being set at 10% to 20% by 2020, the overall market demand for solar has enormous potential for all forms of solar. Therefore a-Si will not directly compete against c-Si during this growth cycle.
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
