Summary
One has to admire the determination and vision of James Dehlsen, the founder of Zond Systems, sold to Enron in 2000, and later founded Clipper Windpower. By now James has learned that wind is fickle and to achieve utility type of reliability of wind power is a long road to travel. Expensive business with high contract liabilities, and now few investors are brave enough to step on the plate.
Analysis
There is nothing wrong with the vision of wind power. But patience is needed. Peter Drucker taught it takes thirty+ years to establish a sound business from the time of vision and first success streak of introduction of a new product with favorable government and state support. However there are fundamental technical issues that have to be resolved:
• all rotating machinery of high complexity like helicopter drives and wind turbines are subject to system vibration problems, resulting in wind turbine blade cracks and gear wear, besides electrical control issues
• air turbulence and unpredictable wind gusts affecting blade loading and resulting vibration modes need to be investigated and resolved in large test facilities, available at NASA (formerly NACA)
• the present high specific speed three blade rotor approach looks good from an aerodynamic point of view, but may not be the best overall technical and economical solution
• new approaches have to be explored, slowing down the blade speeds and locating the generators on the ground
By now it appears GE has the best 2 MW wind turbine solution backed up by their full power test facilities in Pennsylvania.
Blade cracks suffered by Suzlon, Clipper Windpower and others are just indications of the immaturity of the wind power business. The steam turbine industry went though similar teething problems when power levels were increased during the late sixties and during the seventieth energy crisis. Companies like Clipper, Suzlon and others just do not have the depth of complex rotating machinery test facilities and sophisticated and proven system vibration analysis tools. GE and Siemens have the tools and offer the most reliable wind turbines, as well as Vesta having developed their expertise over a very long time span with continuous government support. For now 2 MW is the best power level for the selection of a reliable wind turbine. Higher power levels increase blade vibration forces and gear wear of the present wind turbine configurations and need time to prove new designs.
The reaction of the utility industry is to slow down on wind turbine investments and/or power supply contracts and photovoltaic solar power is becoming a more favorable approach to meet the required state and government renewable energy content of their power portfolio.
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
