Summary
Windows has become a parody of itself. It is not an operating system, but rather an attempt to lock in customers and lock out competition. New alternatives, mostly notably LINUX-based, will replace it over time. The issue today, though, isn't the OS; rather, it's support for MS Office and legacy applications, not Windows itself. As we saw with Vista, attempting to change Windows for the sake of change alone is a losing proposition for users and, ultimately, for Microsoft itself.
Analysis
Windows Vista added essentially no new value and created numerous support headaches for the enterprise. In addition, training and support costs rose, again with no ROI. Windows 7 is a cynical leak designed to placate users and IT staff that are miffed (at best) by the Vista debacle.
I will argue that Windows in any form is becoming obsolete. Windows is huge (bloated is a better term here), slow, difficult to use and maintain, and mostly a serious pain. But it does have one advantage - it runs MS Office, which many organizations view as essential despite its high price and (again) change for change's sake in Office 2007. I've been using various flavors of LINUX (most notably Ubuntu), and I am very pleased with them as desktop OSes. Moreover, OpenOffice 3.0 is due to be released shortly and may be a good substitute for MS Office. And it is possible to run Office under LINUX, but such isn't for the uninitiated at this time.
And, of course, there's always the Mac for those seeking a "real" computer company standing behind their products. Mac OSX is very good, but Macs themselves are quite pricey, so there's a big cost in going with Apple.
I think a combination of LINUX and SaaS will eventually bring Microsoft down to size. After so many years of dealing with their poor quality and putting their interests ahead of those of their customers, such can't happen too soon.
