Summary
In order to understand why Windows 7 will displace XP you have to look at a whole lot more than just the OS. In fact, the Windows 7 OS is a small portion of the overall hurricane that is about to hit the enterprise consumer.
Analysis
Windows 7 is an example of Microsoft recognizing the new device trend and jumping on board to dominate.
Let's take a different example: Google's Android OS. There are lot of new devices coming out with Android. Why? If we didn't have a new flood of SmartPhones hitting the market, would Google's Android OS be making a splash or simply a plop? In short, SmartPhones created a new market. New markets create new opportunities. Google Android is riding that new market wave.
So, where am I leading? What is the new market that will drive Windows 7 forward and eliminate the 'XP is good enough' mindset?
Well, the 'new market' is really a lot of different evolving market's that are all blending together in a perfect storm:
- Netbooks - touch enabled, wireless, 'good enough'
- Cloud based media content - always available
- Software as a Service (SaaS) - per usage licensing, cloud based data
- High speed communications (LTE, WiMax) - ubiquitous access
- Solid State Drives (SSD) - fast boot, longer battery life
Roll them all together and you have a new list of benefits for consumers and enterprises while performing their daily activities:
- Lower cost, high powered devices - lower initial cost, lower support cost
- Minimal software footprints - standard image, easy replacement
- Improved security - data in the cloud, not on the device
- Continuous access
Netbooks are being sold like cell phones. Check out Verizon's Mini Notebook deal for $199 (with two year contract). That means the replacement cycle for consumers will be two years, not the three to five years for notebooks/desktops.
Enterprises will likely follow the same concepts of accelerating replacement cycles in order to gain the best benefits since costs on per device replacement will be lower. Replacing a $300 netbook is drastically different from replacing a $1000 notebook.
Every large enterprise I speak to has been delaying Notebook and Desktop replacements in order to see what Netbooks based on Windows 7 will deliver.
The larger enterprises make deals with the OEMs to get best pricing on replacement equipment and generally accelerate replacement cycles if the support and maintenance costs are lower on the new devices. Netbooks deliver all the benefits any enterprise IT group would drool over and more.
Microsoft slowed down deployment of Netbooks using XP earlier this year by placing restrictions on how XP could be packaged which resulted in higher Netbook prices. Those restrictions will likely vanish with Windows 7.
Windows 7 will ride this new device replacement hurricane and will displace XP in very short order. Microsoft is aligning all their other products to benefit as well: Windows Office 10, Windows Server 2008, Windows Media Player 12, Exchange Server 2010 and more.
David Croslin consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
