Will Large Passenger Aircraft Production Be Limited By A Lack Of Rhenium?

Implications: At a conference in Barcelona last month entitled "Metals in the Aerospace Industry" an industry analyst forecast a total demand for 800, 000, 000 lbs of metal to build between 8,000 and 12,000 multi-engine jet passenger aircraft by 2020. Although most of the metal to be consumed was identified as aluminum and its alloys it was also pointed out that up to 3% of 'other' metals would be needed inparticualr for constructing the high temperature 'superalloys' needed for jet engines. This 3% would be up to 24,000,000 pounds, 11,500 metric tons of 'other metals.' Just one metric ton or so per plane. One of the most critical metals to be needed is rhenium. The global supply of new rhenium annually is today at an all time high, 40 metric tons per annum. Will that be enough to construct engines for as many as 12,000 passenger aircraft as well as an unspecified number of military aircraft and rockets for the exploration of space, satellite placement, and weaponry? Certainly not.  

Analysis: The metal rhenium is entirely produced as a byproduct of the refining of molybdenum.

Molybdenum, itself, is  globally produced 75% as a byproduct of an older type of copper extraction, and 25% from primary molybdenum mines. In the US the figures are 605 as a byproduct of copper mining and 40% from primary mines.

The global production of copper in 2007 was 15,000,000 metric tons;

The global production of molybdenum in 2007 was 179,000 metric tons; and

The global production of rhenium in 2007 was 40 metric tons.

General Electric's jet engine exhaust management systems use a superalloy that is 3% by weight of rhenium, and GE has been also using a super 'superalloy' with as much as 6% by weight of rhenium.

GE has been telling worried customers that it is confident of replacing rhenium with nickel in all or some of these critical applications.

Many aerospace materials' engineers are very skeptical of this 'substitution.' because the melting point of the nickel alloys is far below that of the rhenium alloys and the purpose of the rhenium is to give high temperature strength to engine components constructed with it.

At the Barcelona conference the following question was asked: "What aircraft will not be built if the rhenium supply is not increased? "The consensus answer was passenger aircraft of the Boeing Dreamliner category.

Every time there is a slowdown in copper production, for whatever reason, there is a slowdown in molybdenum production, and in rhenium production. There is no way whatsoever to maintain or increase the production levels of either rhenium or molybdenum without increasing the production of copper.

The only hope for a way out of this crisis of rhenium supply is to build additional molybdenum smelting capacity, but in any case, the global production of molybdenum is now planned to increase by only 20% by 2012, so unless there is a lot of molybdenum production today from which rhenium though present is not being extracted there cannot be much of an increase in rhenium production in the near term, if ever.

The key to increasing the production of rhenium will always be by increasing the production of molybdenum and this will for the most part depend on increasing the production of copper.

Some aircraft are simply not going to be built at least not with the best engines.

The true test today of an aircraft engine manufacturer is how good they are at sourcing critical metals to insure future needs.

The American OEM automotive industry has failed miserably at this test and it is shrinking accordingly and today makes no net profit at all.

There is no more time for the US aerospace industry to think about long term strategies to ensure supplies of critical metals; it's now or never.