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July 30, 2008

Will Government's Promotion of Covered Bonds as Mortgage Funding Mechanisms Bring Back Investors to US Mortgage Market?

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Maureen Bolton
Principal, Global Capital Access
Implications: This article is important because it announces and describes: a) the US Treasury's support of covered bonds, an on-balance sheet method of funding mortgage originations, as an alternative to off-balance sheet mortgage securitizations or mbs b) Four major US banks announcements of their intentions to bring covered bond issues to market in the near future and and their commitment to provide pricing information in order to facilitate the trading of covered bonds and c) the FDIC's support of a covered bond market and its policy statement describing how it would treat covered bond investors in the event that an issuing bank become insolvent. The government and market participant actions described in the article are remarkable because they appear to contemplate an on-going involvement of the US Treasury and FDIC in the funding of mortgages that is more hands-on than any such actions to date, creating a defacto US govt gtd covered bond market.

Analysis:
I realise that time is of the essence and that drastic action must be taken in order to preserve the use of the capital markets to fund residential mortgage originations, but that doesn't mean some thinking shouldn't be done before what appear-to-be preliminary suggestions are actually implemented.

I believe that the covered bond market advocated in today's announcement by the US Treasury, coupled with the "Best Practices" posted on its website and the FDIC's policy statement (also on its website) with respect to covered bond investors in the event of a covered bond bank issuer insolvency create, in effect, a US government guaranteed mechanism for funding residential mortgages.

The Treasury's Best Practices contains specific underwriting criteria  for mortgages eligible as collateral for Covered Bonds-similar to what Freddie/Fannie do for mortgages qualified for inclusion in their guaranteed securities. The FDIC policy contains similar eligibility criteria for Covered Bonds that are eligible for an immediate release of collateral to investors in the event the issuing bank becomes insolvent.

Also troubling is the reference to rating agencies, as a measure of safety and quality with respect to the advocated Covered Bonds: l  The article also mentions a quote from a fed official stating that "highly rated" Covered Bonds could be eligible as collateral for central bank loans.  The FDIC Policy statement mentions AAA mortgage-backed securities as eligible collateral for Covered Bonds.  If we learned nothing else in the last two years, we learned that ratings are no guarantee of safety or value -yes?   

Finally -after all the havoc market value has wreaked and all the panic-selling it caused, the FDIC's policy statement states that, if a bank issuing Covered Bonds becomes insolvent -one potential act by the FDIC would be to have the Covered Bond collateral immediately liquidated at and the investors would be paid, you guessed it, market value.  This action would happen regardless of whether the mortgages collateralizing the covered bonds were current or not. 
Wouldn't it just be easier to have the US treasury fund US mortgage originations with US Treasuries?  If we're going to cut-out the middlemen-let's do it -rather than have the US markets endure yet another embarrassing financial fiasco.



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