Will Google’s Android Fulfill the Hype?

Implications: Google’s Android mobile platform has the potential of revolutionizing the mobile computer market.  It could become a standard platform for tens of millions of devices.  A lot of work remains, however, to translate potential into reality.

Analysis:

Google’s Android mobile platform was one of the most widely anticipated announcements in recent memory.  Stories about the “gPhone” and the “Google iPhone” were everywhere in the months leading up to the announcement, despite little actual information being available.  Google carefully positioned Android to make the greatest impact while minimizing their conflict with existing handset vendors.

The initial acceptance of Android is quite remarkable.  Even without a final version being available it seems to have become the development platform of choice for hundreds, if not thousands of developers.  It has achieved a cachet within the development community, particularly among younger developers, that Symbian (controlled by Nokia) and Microsoft’s Windows Mobile lack.  This is the same age group that has been at the forefront of mobile technology adoption, which suggests tools developed by this group could have huge potential for market expansion.    

With thousands of developers pounding out new tools for Android it seems safe to assume that at least of few of them will prove compelling to the market.  A very high percentage of these tools will likely die quickly, but the numbers are high enough that if only 5% or less are successful the total number of successes will be huge.  Further, Android has the potential of moving off handsets and into other mobile platforms.  The long-term potential of Android is quite remarkable.

Between here and that potential, however, lie a number of issues that must be resolved.  Android today is still in a relatively early stage.  One user described it as “buggy betaware”.  The developer community is being patient with its problems now.  They understand it is still an early release, and the potential is large enough they are willing to live with today’s problems in the hopes of seeing success tomorrow.  Nonetheless, that patience won’t last forever.  Google must be able to resolve the bugs and provide full functionality soon.  If they are unable to release a solid and complete product within the next few months, the initial developer enthusiasm will wane and by the time a finished product is released nobody will be left to develop on it.

Android must also be adopted as the platform of choice on multiple devices.  Regardless of how solid Android is, and regardless of how many cool tools are available on it, success will come only if it is widely available on physical devices.  If Google can quickly solidify the platform it seems likely the devices will be there.  Motorola is already showing interest, and other major manufacturers will follow suit if/when they see the platform being successful.

It’s still very early for Android.  The potential is there to meet or even exceed the hype, but it won’t happen by magic.  Google must fix the bugs and add necessary functionality quickly, then Android must become available on multiple devices.  If that can be happen, the hype may well become real!