Where will Small Players for Projection Display Technologies Go ?

Implications: How often have those projection display technology providers or developers claimed to bring a brilliant future, with excuses for repetitive delay in productization and market adoption? Pico-projector is just one of them.  .......................... Why has the development of many projection technologies kept falling behind what was expected by the consumer electronics marketplace?  .................................How  is sustainability among laser technology, DMD and LCoS in mini-projection applications? ............................ What could be advantageous to stock holders or consumers among the companies, such as: Novalux (San Jose), Spartial Photonics(San Jose), Microvision (Redmond, WA), Light Blue (U.K.), Himax (Taiwan) (note: Himax is partnered with 3M)?

Analysis: Tricks in technology development are real yet are subjective to individual player. Texas Instrument (TI) is the global leader for DMD (Digital Micro-mirror Device) for DLP (Digital Lighting Processing) applications in areas of TV and projector. TI has long developed the markets with  business partnerships at quite a few OEM/ODM in Asia, such as Optoma/Coretronics, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Samsung, etc. In the projector field, TI has obviously dominated the global market with proven capabilities of providing total solutions.


Digital projector involves heavily in integration and alignment of optical, electronic, thermal, and mechanical characteristics and related devices. The digital projector market is expected reach 10 millions units in sale worldwide by early 2009, including cinema level. At the end, only LCD projector could compete with TI's DLP in market share and cost position. LCoS (Liquid Crystal on Silicon) is out of the game ever since Intel. Brillian, Philips withdrew the market. Even so, DLP is losing its incentives and share position in the TV market due to the increased competition from LCD flat panel display.


TI's DMD, SP's DMD, Himax/3M's LCoS, or Novalux's laser, Microvision's laser technology has its specialty. Nevertheless, the device miniaturization for use in mobile phone should definitely take long time to be realized, regardless of cost and capacity for wide acceptance.


There are quite a few parameters in judging and measuring those small firms of the said technologies. Management leadership and cost-management methodology are part of portfolio that must be thoroughly checked and verified from time to time. Besides, all the said technologies require MEMS manufacturing processes that use certain special equipments, and, generally, have low yield at a high cost. The light source and suppliers are pretty limited in selection, which is the hindered factor for cost control and timely volume delivery. For example: green light is developed and potentially supplied only by Osram, Philips, and Corning; Philips ranks tier 1 of LED solution providers.


Over the next three years, I'd estimate to see the following scenario:

1.  The well developed infrastructure of system product manufacturing
     and product design in Asia will push these small firms to
     be trimmed, edged, and/or integrated to survive. Individual players 
     in the U.S. should actively seek ways to sell at a good price or may
     fail to sustain. Most of the small players will be acquired or
     merged for purposes of integrating core technology required by large
     corporations. Alternatively, they may most likely become technology
     licensing firms for royalty income. Large companies in Asia, such as
     Samsung, will take a lead and drive for such integration as required
     to foster its business growth in a timely manner;


2.  MEMS devices will be fully moved to Asia for effective volume
     production at a lowest cost;


3.  Imaging sensor technology will move quickly, with quantum
     momentum, to wafer-level processes for System-on-a-Chip (SOC)
     solutions. The technology integration that impact the display market
     and small firms will be therefore reinforced in an accelerating
     process.


Referenced topics:

http://www.photonicsonline.com/article.mvc/Novalux-Shows-Concept-Home-Theater-Laser-Proj-0001?VNETCOOKIE=NO

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2704,2080442,00.asp