Where does the corn come from?

Implications: A quick look at the location of the ethanol plants will reveal that most are located in corn producing regions. That isn't particularly surprising. However, within those regions the majority of the ethanol plants are located as far from the river systems as possible. The reason for this is that corn with economic access to barge transportation will preferentially flow to marine transportation, given the generally lower freight rates.

Analysis:  The transition in transportation between corn and ethanol will probably be concentrated in routes that were served by rail in any case. That means that domestic food and animal feed applications will take the brunt of the hit, at least in the next 5 years. After that, exports may suffer as well.

Remember that the ethanol phenomena is relatively fragile in that a simple reduction in subsidies or an elimination of the tariff protection would be enough to idle the best of the ethanol plants. We've been through that once before. At one point, Louisiana had 9 operating ethanol plants. Congress changed the rules and all of them were idled. Congress is fully capable of flip flopping again with little concern about the economic turmoil that can cause.

If, as a nation, we persist in promoting Ethanol as a fuel, then economically Brazil and Columbia are much better sources of supply. One might argue why doesn't the US just use its own sugar cane instead of corn?

The problem with that argument is our growing season which only lasts three months viz 10-12 in the countries mentioned above. Also we only produce cane in four states, Texas, Louisiana, Florida and Hawaii. With genetic modifications and a mixture of sorghum and cane, we might stretch the season to four months, but we will never match the longer seasons to the south.

Some argue for cellulosic ethanol. This is possible, but requires serious genetic modification of the bugs that do the conversion. Basically, you need to get around the lignose that protects the starch you would like to convert to a sugar, thence to an alcohol. Although this is a prime area of research with millions being spent, we still do not have a single functioning commercial plant producing cellulosic alcohol.

My final point is that if we persist in seeking renewable transportation fuels, there is a better alcohol than ethyl alcohol, that being butyl alcohol. This material is produced from the same feedstocks as the ethyl variety, but is equivalent to gasoline in energy content (ethyl alcohol has only 70% of the energy content of an equivalent volume of gasoline) and butyl alcohol is fully miscible with gasoline (ethyl alcohol separates from any blend in the presence of any moisture, with the result that E10 and other blends cannot be blended at refineries and connot be moved via pipeline. The British and Dupont have been working the butyl alcohol side of the street for several years. It also depends on serious genetic modification of the bugs.

My interest in the debate stems from ongoing projects amongst a group of Schools here in Louisiana who are focused on energy concerns. This includes the oldest research effort in the United States devoted to sugar, the Audubon Institute which is a division of the State University system.