When data is vague or inconclusive, look at the real world

Implications: More loans are going into default and foreclosure, not only of the borrower, but now the builders are running out of cash. The downward spiral is not yet at midpoint, and will continue down for several years. What makes one think that prices will trend up in general, at any point in the next several years, when banks are trying to shore up their balance sheets and hoarding cash?

Analysis: There are many industry people who have only one way to project the future, and that is "rosy".  The reality is that, at current prices, people cannot afford to buy, and the data tells me a different story than what others see(or want to see).
Commercial RE is next, as retail is hurting, and new buildings have difficulty with leasing them out, and existing buildings have increasing vacancy rates.  Banks will take even bigger hits, and no one is looking at the future of destination resorts, when their business is just a trickle of what it needs to be, for those developers to make a profit(and pay off their loans)
What about factoring in the overall credit crisis?? As defaults occur, people max out credit cards,etc., and this further hurts banks(and prohibits them from lending).
The future will be painful.  Sorry to give you the bad news.