Summary
Recently a group of “luminaries and experts” were assembled by the editors of Business & Commercial Aviation magazine to discuss the outlook for business aviation. Most are longtime friends for whom I have a great deal of respect. Reflecting on the past, the group glanced at their crystal balls for a look at the future. The report of the meeting was titled When Business Aviation Rebounds. The key word is When, and not If.
Analysis
The common thread found in most, if not all, of the comments by the participants was Change, a word we heard a lot last year during the presidential campaign. I don’t believe the change in business aviation will be as dramatic as some in Congress and the Administration have implied with careless remarks made in hearings and speeches. Business aviation change will happen not because of government edict, but because of the necessity that business be more efficient in order to survive in a world economy that is growing at very low rate – lower than anything we have seen in many years.
The airlines are becoming more efficient by cutting back or eliminating service to many small markets and communities, and decreasing the number size of their fleet. This is a bullish trend for business aviation. In the weeks and months after 9/11 when the airlines were in lockdown and security requirements made airline travel, if not impossible, extremely unpleasant, business aviation had its finest hour. Every business jet on a charter certificate was booked. The backlog of new orders for new business aircraft grew for seven straight years. New aircraft from very light jets to the very long-range business jets were developed. Over 6,330 new business jets were delivered in these seven years, more than were delivered in the previous 18 years.
As I write this in late May, the OEMs are projecting deliveries of about 800 business jets in 2009, down from 1,139 in 2008. The Teal Group, a major aerospace research company, believes that new business jet deliveries won’t start to recover until 2012. Then their forecast calls for a five-year recovery period with a 10 percent per year growth rate starting in 2012. Teal estimates the production of 12,768 business aircraft over the next 10 years.
While the industry is working through this down cycle, business jets have not been grounded. Flight hours may be off 20%, but the fleet is still growing, and aging. As the stigma of business aviation wears thin, and it will, and the economy improves, and it will, hours flown will increase. The other two industry drivers, age and size, will continue to grow.
Inefficient manufactures and service providers will consolidate and right size. Innovation will create better products and services. The recovery will provide opportunities not yet even dreamed of. My friend Dick Van Gemert, one of the luminaries, said “someplace in this manure pile is a pony.” He is right.
