Summary
The advertising investment will go down to 2003 levels - 5.600.000 €, meanwhile others factors could play a key role for the recovery of the advertising industry such as the new public TVE without advertising, The DDT and the Analogic blackout
Analysis
According the i2p report (index of advertising investment) the last results for the first nine months of 2009 show that the investment has gone down 27%, the worst performance was for Cinema, Sunday Supplements and Magazines with a decrease of almost 35%. In the case of TV the drop was a 27,9%, According the same report the fall for the first quarter was a 27,8% with respect to the same period of 2008, In the second quarter was 30,7% (the worst performance) and finally the third quarter shows a drop of 22,1%. Fortunately, not all are bad news. According the study it's expected that the figures will improve around 16,9% for the last quarter. Advertising forecast for 2010 will be around 3% according some experts. In the case of TVE which it's share of spending is about 20% (2008 data) represents almost 600 mio € , some experts expect an increase of prices between 15%-20% for 2010, although the level of increase could be influence by the economic downturn, In this context, the money generated for TVE probably will go to some private TV Channels or media with similar target as the public TV. In the case of housewives which is the main target in TVE, T5 could be better off with this issue followed by Autonomicas TV, Radio, Magazines and Outdoor which have a good performance on affinity, However according the last results of October (TVE with only 5 minutes of advertising per hour) shows that Antena 3 y T5 have the best t results in audience. In both cases more than 4% of growth. For the other hand Cuatro and la Sexta remains the same figures and Autonomicas TV has improve it’s performance although in less percentage than Antena 3 y T5. Finally, the development of the Spanish market in 2010 could be influenced by many factors such as DDT and the Analogic blackout and future mergers (T5 with Cuatro or Antena 3 with la Sexta) these could boost the new strategies on prices
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
