Summary
Tesla Motors struggles to develop a viable plug-in hybrid in indicative of deeper issues that have yet to be resolved with plug-in hybrid technology, specifically battery technology. The OEM's who are committing to a plug-in hybrid should be very careful in the commitments made to this product technology.
Analysis
Let's first be clear that Tesla's roadster is not a mass market product. The product that has been developed is a novelty, and should be analyzed as such. To utilize a Lotus platform, and to keep it exceptionally light in order to unburden the lithium-ion technology and to achieve any usable range, is indicative of the technology hurdles still before plug-in hybrids. Still as a major issue are lithium ion battery capacity. Capacity increases simply are not happening at a pace to meet the demands of automotive OEMs. Lithium ion technology has only resulted in a doubling of battery capacity in 10 years. This is a far cry from the 2 year doubling of capaity we have seen in chip technology utilized in automobiles. Tesla hoped to have a niche, boutique item that could achieve some range by minimizing weight. This has lead to safety concerns for the Tesla. You will not find the electronic and computing content in a Tesla that you will find in a mass market vehicle. This content adds weight and requires power, but it is content expected by mass market consumers and premium market consumers. Also, adaptations made to the transmission system to again make up for inherent capacity and reliability issues in the lithium ion technology have resulted in engineering reliability issues for the Tesla. In addition, the issues of heat build up and transfer have not been resolved by any automotive OEM. Exxon Mobil has a promising film technology that might help provide a shield for this heat phenomenon that will be tested by battery manufacturers and OEM's in the coming year. Tesla has not, to my knowledge, addressed this issue. This remains a huge stumbling block. My expectation is more setbacks as the Tesla tries to deliver a "real" car. At this point, a real car it is not. As for the OEM's, expect a cautious approach to lithium ion hybirds, especially plug in technology. At thsi point, technology is only remotely viable for short duration drives before the charge/recharge cycle must begin. Also, the issue of battery longevity is far from being optimized and has not been tested. The real world expectation may be OEM's, delivering small numbers of fleet plug in hybrids, for city testing in controlled conditions. This could be for city utility fleets (meter reader) or for postal vehicles. Bottomline, hybrid lithium ion technology is many years - at least 5 to 15 - away from being able to see mass market use in vehicles. And simultaneously, the OEM's are improving fleet fuel economy through diesel technology, turbocharging technolgy, regenerative energy technology, cylinder deactivation, sleep mode technology, and mild hybrid technology. These developments will outpace lithium ion plug in technology. Also, hydrogen fuel cell technology will continue to develop and will provide a viable alternative to plug in hybrid technology.
