Summary
At an air show, not so long ago, “four engines for long haul” was the slogan. Aside from proving just how wrong that statement was, Virgin Atlantic’s order for A330’s shows that not even they could ignore the fact that two engines were and are always better than four.
Analysis
The orders for the A380 and 747-8 families show clearly that the market is not that interested, if at all, about flying the biggest machine any longer.
Unless you want to haul 150 tons cargo then you have no option to go with the 747-8F.
Airbus and Virgin Atlantic were both lambasted (and rightfully so) by Boeing and GE for their scaremongering that somehow four engines were “safer” than two. Statistics and facts speak otherwise – quads have a higher rate of diversion than twins and the latter has better redundancy in place to deal with emergencies, for example.
Virgin Atlantic has fallen out of love with the horrific A340-600 and is now supplanting them with A330-300s. Good choice too.
It was just under three years ago that Airbus put out an advisory to A340-600 operators to carry less cargo due to the airplane flying “nose-down” in cruise, pushing Virgin Atlantic and other customers towards suing Airbus – this was averted when Airbus offered (and continues to offer) payments in lieu of the higher fuel burn compared to the competing 777-300ER which consumes up to 25% less fuel on similar missions.
Let’s not forget that just a few weeks after the threat to sue Airbus, Virgin Atlantic went on to place a big order for the 787-9. That means that by the time the A380 enters service with the airline around 2013 or beyond (depending on Airbus capability to produce them), Virgin Atlantic’s fleet will comprise mostly twin-aisle, twin-jet airplanes.
A remarkable turnaround for an airline that fell for the false marketing of “engine safety” led by Airbus.
Still haunted by the lack of GE’s presence on the A350XWB today, Airbus has learned a lesson in a most painful manner, not least because John Leahy at one time brazenly stated that Airbus would “do nothing” in relation to the 787.
For Virgin Atlantic, their strategy to employ twins ahead of quads is one that they’ll stick with – frequency based operations derives the most benefit for success. Hub-busting is the way forward and they wouldn’t have placed orders for the A330 and 787 if they didn’t feel these jets would work for their network.
So the question to perhaps put to Sir Richard is why it took him (and Airbus) so long to realise that twin-engine jets were the future?
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.


