What Could You Expect from Players for MEMS-based Pico Projector in North American Market?

Implications: What is the merit and advantage for Japanese and other leading Asian brands in Korea and Taiwan to play with in the consumer electronics market? How spaciously could be U.S. firms to play in the portable consumer electronics market when Apple has lost its power in driving further cost reduction and Steve Jobs' charisma has begun fading? And, how could others be attractive when companies like Samsung (Korea), Mediatek (Taiwan), and HTC (Taiwan) take leaderships in driving the applications at a sustained profit, separately in area of display, DVD, and mobile communications, with cost-effective supply chains in Asia?

Analysis:  Large firms in Asia most likely will choose to integrate MEMS-based technology, such as laser engine for display applications, as cost is the primary concern when timely volume production becomes critical. Could the price of an assembled laser module achieve a target of $99 per unit in three years? A higher burn rate at Microvision (Nasdaq: MVIS) is deemed inevitable under the field conditions where MEMS facilities in providing volume delivery are not effectively selective, cost control and constant supply in light source (particularly green laser) are vague, leading global brands have not dedicated to first adoptions in a timely fashion, and alternative low-cost solutions are launched and commercially marketable.

MEMS technology suffers a big challenge in manufacturing yield ramp-up primarily due to design sophistication associated with special wafer processing conditions. Normally, MEMS process starts with 15% and takes at least five years to reach 75% at most. Texas Instrument (Nasdaq: TXN) making MEMS-based DMD chip for digital projector is a typical example.

The situation is similar to the story of Brillian, a LCoS light-engine and projection firm based in Arizona, who had kept burning money for seven more years before it was merged with Syntax, a branded LCD TV marketer (OLEVIA brand) based in Southern California and founded in 2003, to become Syntax-Brillian (previously Nasdaq: BRLC, now BRLCQ.PK). All the tricks behind the scene were about how the focused new applications could be tangibly developed, and thus investors with insufficient insight favored the claim for a bright and brilliant future. In realty, alternative solutions from LCD flat panel then appeared to surprise consumers and rapidly seize the market in a fast cost-driven pace.

I have a brand new pico projector, the first commercial one in North America, that I just demonstrated in San Francisco Bay Area; it is now under mass shipment. Surprisingly, none of the parts or components in this pico projector was made in the U.S. That indicates the total ex-factory cost in Asia is much less than you may imagine and that of other suppliers, including Microvision, who have claimed to provide great features.