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November 17, 2006

Weyerhaeuser vs. Domtar - who won?

Analysis of: Weyerhaeuser to Separate Unit | online.wsj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Dave Hillman, Independent ConsultantDave Hillman
Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
Implications: Weyerhaeuser is #1 in Fluff Pulp sales and the US has 95% of the world's business - which is growing by 5%/year. They now can concentrate on getting Port Wentworth, GA (acquired from Smurfit-Stone) fully up to speed on Fluff Pulp.
Domtar may be #1 in UCF (uncoated free sheet) but this business is highly dependent on the N.A. economy and is subject to erosion from low cost producers of UCF in Brazil and Indonesia and perhaps even China (if they can satisfy their domestic needs).

Analysis: The US is #1 in Fluff Pulp because we have an usual Pine species - Slash Pine, which is ideally suited to diapers, adult briefs and feminine hygiene products.  Weyerhaeuser has four mills capable of making this product.  New diaper plants are starting up every week in both Latin America and the Middle East.
Domtar's UCF business depends on the sale of Copybond, envelope paper, offset printing paper and tablet (e.g. legal pad, back-to-school items).  These grades are being made (high quality, too) in Brazil, Indonesia and China. Should they ever decide to come into the US market, Domtar doesn't stand a chance.  Their wood costs and labor costs are many times what is being paid in Indonesia (a papermaker makes US$2.25/day) and China (a papermaker there makes US$10/day).  British Columbia papermakers, as a worst case example, make CAN$38/hour.


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