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July 3, 2007

Well its about time

Analysis of: Blockbuster's Loss Widens; Shares Fall | www.bloomberg.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Kenneth Leonard, PrincipalKenneth Leonard
Principal, Leonard Associates
Implications: Blockbuster is not immune from the problems that have plagued the industry as Movie Gallery and others struggle to find some way to justify the continued operation of expensive and oversized stores. There will be many similar articles about Blockbuster's problems now that they have been exposed as having the same problems in the same degree as their competitors.

Analysis: It is my strong opinion that Blockbuster will continue to suffer a decline  until they have closed far more of their retail stores. The real estate market for movie stores has been and continues to be badly over-stored.

The silver lining will turn out to be the fact that most stores are only on 5 year commitments. As they continue to expire they will be closed and within a few years I predict the company will reach the proper level of stores needed for reasonable representation as they shift to the mails. They will find that they probably can get by with 50 to 60% of their present store count.


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