July 28, 2008
We better get used to this
Analysis of:
MACAU HOTEL LIFTS WYNN RESORTS PROFITS - CHINA POPERTY HELPS RESULTS SURPASS FORECAST | www.lvrj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Implications: The results that ahve been produced by WYNN for the last quarter is going to be indicative of what we see in the near term future.
Analysis: Wynn's results really reflect what will be happening to the bigger casino companies for the near future. Wynn is building Encore in Las vegas, due to open in late 2008. As has been noted, this will be a challenging time to bring new product into the market. But let's look at several other companies that have a presence in the far east. The Las Vegas Sands company is almost a mirror image of Wynn. They are in Macau, in a big way, and just recently opened the Palazzzo, a sister property to the Venetian. Now all the reports I have heard have been rather uninspiring relative the Palazzo. Most observers believe that the new property will cannibalize the Venetian more than aid earnings. Where the LVS company has also been saved, from an earnings standpoint, is from the Macau property. MGM Mirage, will most likely reflect the same scenario, adding new product to las Vegas in the form of City Center, and having what I am assuming will be significant earnings from Macau. So it will be very interesting to see these 3 companies future earnings with each of them in various degrees of the same scenario. To summarize, each company is bringing or has recently brought new product into a flat or declining short term market (Las Vegas) but have the luxury of a significant revenue offset from Macau. As long as Macau holds up and there is no current reason to believe it wont, It looks like these 3 companies laid a good bet.
Analysis: Wynn's results really reflect what will be happening to the bigger casino companies for the near future. Wynn is building Encore in Las vegas, due to open in late 2008. As has been noted, this will be a challenging time to bring new product into the market. But let's look at several other companies that have a presence in the far east. The Las Vegas Sands company is almost a mirror image of Wynn. They are in Macau, in a big way, and just recently opened the Palazzzo, a sister property to the Venetian. Now all the reports I have heard have been rather uninspiring relative the Palazzo. Most observers believe that the new property will cannibalize the Venetian more than aid earnings. Where the LVS company has also been saved, from an earnings standpoint, is from the Macau property. MGM Mirage, will most likely reflect the same scenario, adding new product to las Vegas in the form of City Center, and having what I am assuming will be significant earnings from Macau. So it will be very interesting to see these 3 companies future earnings with each of them in various degrees of the same scenario. To summarize, each company is bringing or has recently brought new product into a flat or declining short term market (Las Vegas) but have the luxury of a significant revenue offset from Macau. As long as Macau holds up and there is no current reason to believe it wont, It looks like these 3 companies laid a good bet.
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