May 29, 2007
Watch where the people go
Analysis:
Let me begin by stating that I believe this proposed transaction is a win/win for the owners/management/shareholders. The reason is quite simple, Kirk wants the plums of the organization. Bellagio, with its EBITDA (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of 474 million can fade any problems which may occur withe the citycenter project. Yhe management wins because their stock options profits are huge and many of them get to stay and operate one company or the other. Let's consider why this has happened from a timing standpoint. I have reviewed the Ebitda of the individual properties and find an interesting analysis when you consider the earnings per proerty from 2005 to 2006. What the analysis reflects is the "Mandalay" properties had tremendous year over year growth. this growth was anywhere from 20 million (circus-circus) to 83.4 million (Bellagio). The properties with the smallest or no growth were the "old" MGM properties. MGM Grand, NYNY, Treasure Island. Why is this? Well, I believe that MGM has made their operational improvements, probably scaled down their corporate expenses attributed to each property and does not believe that they will see these massive gains again. In the first quarter the entire strip improved only 25 million year over year 2007 to 2006. This proves my point, that now was a good time to make a move. If the market wasnt going to move the stock price then Kirk would and did. Where do the key execs end up, here's my quick picks. Terry Lanni, a truly great CEO finally gets to retire and return to his beloved soutern california and family. Bobby Baldwin, logically will go with Kirk since he is overseeing much of the citycenter project and previously ran Bellagio for Steve Wynn. Jin Murren, Ken Rosevear, and John Redmond will stay with the remaining company and be considered for the top job in that company. Let the best man win.
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