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March 10, 2008

WSJ Belabors The Obvious

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Kenneth Leonard, PrincipalKenneth Leonard
Principal, Leonard Associates
Implications: Using the well publicized problems of Harry Macklowe and Centro Properties as the poster boys of WSJ's front Page article, we then learn that it is only the over leveraged commercial property speculators who are likely to suffer in this real estate recession. The article then quickly points out that the commercial property downturn isn't expected to be nearly as steep as the current slump in the housing market. Ho Hum, so what else is new?

Analysis:  In my opinion this is just one more example of the major media's appalling lack of understanding of the significant differences that exist within the broad category of "commercial real estate" markets.
 
In reality there is hardly any similarity between the residential condo markets and the shopping center industry. Further, there is also very little similarity between the office real estate industry and the retail real estate industry. Their time horizons are very different. The people are different. The issues are different. They even have different trade shows and industry publications. In fact, the only significant resemblances are the facts that they both drink from the same well of lenders.

So why should the lack of identical impacts from the current recession be front page news?  I guess it must just be a slow news day.


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