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July 1, 2008

Verizon Determined to Dump Vodafone.

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Samuel Greenholtz, PrincipalSamuel Greenholtz
Principal, Telecom Pragmatics
Implications: 1.      It is probably not an exaggeration to say that Verizon is hell-bent on taking full control of its wireless business. 2.      The acquisition of Alltel was only kind of a half victory. 3.      Verizon might be signaling to the industry that is willing to pay a high price to get Vodafone’s share.

Analysis:  Propelled by a closing window of opportunity on the regulatory side, Verizon Wireless finally purchased Alltel to become the biggest wireless provider in terms of subscribers in the US.  However, there are mixed emotions with the leadership at the RBOC.  AT&T having 100 percent control of its 71 million subs is a lot better than Verizon having just over half of the earnings from its 80 million customers.   

The level of frustration at Verizon with the current situation is evident in the source article.  The CEO had to be gritting his teeth, when he said, “Vodafone’s been a great partner.”  Also, despite Ivan Seidenberg’s comments to the contrary, he is not passively sitting by waiting for Vodafone “to find” him.  He obviously intends to put a lot of pressure on Vodafone’s new CEO to sell out.  And it might just be the optimal time for Vodafone to give up its stake.

So, as we approach the 4th of July and Independence Day, is Verizon looking to free itself from the British? It certainly would appear so and it may be a bitter battle to wage.      


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