Verizon/CWA Negotiations Will Have An Effect on the AT&T/CWA Negotiations circa 2009

Implications: If Verizon agrees to wage increases and medical benefit changes that AT&T doesn't want to accept, this can have severe complications on the AT&T/CWA negotiations scheduled to begin in April, 2009.  AT&T, however, also have many possible changes to the current CWA contract that may inflame the union, without the help of Verizon.

Analysis:  AT&T was supposed to deal with the CWA union agreement on August 6, 2008, but was able to shove the agreement date one year until August, 2009, allowing VZ to work the CWA/IBEW ahead of T going through it.  We don't know what the deal really is between VZ and the unions, until the unions vote on it/ratify it.  Apparently, there are going to be wage increases of several percent per year for several years, along with some kind of medical plan changes.  The RBOCs have been trying to get the unions to pay for more of their medical for years, but always shy away from pushing it at the negotiation table.  The VZ agreement will set the strawman agreement for CWA to negotiate from in their minds.  AT&T would say they would start from scratch without paying any pertinent attention to the VZ agreement from a practical negotiation standpoint. Funny, they all used to be the Bell System at one time, and now we have really two Bell Systems to deal with instead of one. 
What is on the AT&T table in this writer's opinion is the following:  1) AT&T will attempt to bring the medical payment thing to the union, understanding that management is paying over $700/month now for a retired husband/wife, and still having to come out of pocket for lots of things like prescriptions/doctor office copays, 2) the outside plant technician title (the folks that place aerial and underground (in conduit) cable in the old BST states will most likely be eliminated, and the work will go to the master contractors, finally 3) the buried service wire crews that BST has had for some ten or more years will most likely go the way of dinosaurs, because T doesn't believe in having bsw contractors on the payroll:  that is contract work in the old 13 SBC states.  So, what happens from an investor standpoint in the first half of 2009?
INVESTORS pay attention please.  It is normal for all management people to be trained in the craft or nonmanagement jobs prior to a potential strike.  That will be the first thing that indicates T is preparing for a strike or work stoppage.  The next things that happen are capex related:  much heavy spending will take place in the first half of 2009, so that T can ride out a work stoppage if it occurs, heaven forbid.  So, the vendor list that Network has for all the routers, DSLAMs, VRADs. circuit packs, construction work for VRADs, etc, will see heavy PO activity in the first half of the year, most likely.  This will put T in a more powerful negotiating position with the CWA, and it will allow the management people to concentrate on doing the maintenance/installation jobs during a possible work stoppage, keeping T running as if there were no strike at all.  Let's hope there is no strike, but if there ever were reasons for the CWA to strike in 2009, this is it, brother/sister.