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March 19, 2007

Vail Resorts' New Vision

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
J. Murph Yule, President & Chief Executive OfficerJ. Murph Yule
President & Chief Executive Officer, JMY Consulting Services, Inc.
Implications: Key to the development planning and marketing of Ever Vail are: 

- "green" development philosophy, trying to create a truly sustainable development with an ongoing commitment to minimizing the development footprint on the lands

- the idea of 150-200 whole ownership condominium units, 75-125 fractional ownership condominiums (1/4,1/5. up to 1/8 have had the best results), 100,000 sq. ft. hotel (hotel/condo concept has worked well in the resort village development), and 100,000 to 150,000 sq. ft. of commercial, retail, office, and restaurant space to further enhance the "live-work" environment

- Vail Resorts does not anticipate beginning any real estate sales on the project until 2009


Analysis: Vail Resorts, Inc. is one of the key innovators and operators in ski and multi-season resort industry. JMY has had hands-on working relationship with Vail Resorts, Inc.

On the development side, Vail Resorts is proposing the redevelopment of a 9.5 acre site currently known as West LionsHead, a site currently underutilized by Vail as a vehicle maintenance shop yard and warehouse and office complex and gas station. The conceptual plan (not approved by the Town of Vail to date) calls for a "community within a community" mixed used resort village development including a large residential component (whole ownership condominiums and fractional ownership), a hotel (possibly hotel condo development), a retail/shops and office development, restaurant space, a newly built mountain operations facility, a public parking facility, a gondola to serve as the fifth base portal to Vail Mountain (critical ski in/ski out component to any resort village development play), and green space (public park). Key to the development planning and the marketing is the "green" development philosophy, trying to create a truly sustainable development with an ongoing commitment to minimizing the development footprint on the lands.

Also key to any resort development is a proper density and mixture or types of residential development and at different price points in order to open up the potential list of Buyers/Investors. Critical to any successful resort development is location, vision, capital, timing, and the right mix of development components and price points to create a sense of urgency in the market place. JMY likes the idea of 150-200 whole ownership condominium units, 75-125 fractional ownership condominiums (1/4,1/5. up to 1/8 have had the best results), 100,000 sq. ft. hotel (hotel/condo concept has worked well in the resort village development), and 100,000 to 150,000 sq. ft. of commercial, retail, office, and restaurant space to further enhance the "live-work" environment and also the neighborhood or what JMY likes to call the "community within a community" vision.

Another aspect of "Ever Vail" planning that JMY likes is that Vail Resorts does not anticipate beginning any real estate sales on the project until 2009. Timing is a critical component as well for any successful resort development. And while the end of 2006 and all of 2007 and a part of 2008 are not considered strong real estate resort sales years according to JMY, JMY is predicting based on market conditions, cost of capital, and absorption rates, that in 2009 and 2010 real estate resort development and high end residential development at key locations will be on the upswing.


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