Summary
Large scale deployment bundled in computers in retail channels has already occurred. This a major portion of the software market.
Upgrades of Vista on existing computers are not yet a big factor in sales, nor have they ever been for OS sales. Upgrades involves new hardware in many cases so new sales will be tied to new computer purchases.
Vista will drive Office 2007 sales for Microsoft. This will be a major incremental revenue and profit driver for Microsoft.
Analysis
Most machines shipping to retail these days are Vista. This is large scale adoption.
Have you gone to a computer retailer in past two weeks. All machines are most locations are one of the three flavors of Vista. The cheap machines that are highly popular include Microsoft Works rather the Microsoft Office. If you install your old Office 2000 or Office 2003 software you already own on this new machine the graphics on the new machine have style making the old office look shabby. Many new laptop buys running Vista will buy one of the various Office 2007 upgrades. While Microsoft may not see great revenue improvement from Vista, the Vista rollout will drive many Office 2007 upgrades that otherwise would not have happened. (and I am just one of those upgrades!)
Of course many large company will lag back a year or two before upgrading to Office 2007. This is not new event that business are slow to upgrade. It it users experience at home that brings the stories of advanced capabilities into the office that forces the boss to see the value the Vista and Office 2007 upgrade.
The Excel support enlarged spreadsheets 65,000x1,000,000 cells vs the 256X65000 cells. This a killer feature for getting your office work done, and you first learn about it being possible because you learn about it on your home machine.
All new machines shipping will soon be using Vista. These machines bundling Vista will drive both Office 2007 and Vista ugrades. In a number cases the home users will be pressuring the boss for more Office suite features after seeing them in their new home laptops.
