Summary
Toyota's engineers believe that at its present state of development the lithium ion battery can only be scaled up from laptop powering size to, at most, a size that will safely power a 2 passenger car for a 50 mile run before needing a recharge. Today the state-of-the-lithium-ion-battery development is such that it is only useful in a limited temperature and load (weight carrying) range. Toyota has therefore decided only for marketing reasons to introduce now a small passenger carrying commuter vehicle powered by the safest most durable and long lived lithium-ion batteries it, itself, Toyota, has so far developed. Toyota's caution highlights GM's desperation.
Analysis
General Motors has been steadily losing money for most of the last decade, and its history in the battery powered car market niche is limited and a litany of false steps and dead ends.
Toyota made very large profits every year of the 21st century until 2008, and its Prius hybrid has been so far the car of the new century.
With these thoughts in mind we need now to look at Toyota's announcement that it will introduce a very small (2 passenger) car powered by a lithium-ion battery, which must be plugged in and recharged every time is has gone 40 miles in order to maintain the car's range and performance.
Why has Toyota introduced this car now? The reason is to steal the thunder from GM's Chevrolet Volt.But we must take into account that GM plans to sell the Chevrolet Volt in the Northeastern US as well as in California. This means that the Volt must be able to perform and take a charge at 0 F as well as at 100 F. GM is risking a lot less than Toyota by offering such a car. If the Volt doesn't work it will be downplayed and quickly sidetracked by a flurry of small high gas mileage cars based on the Chevrolet Cruze developed in Korea by GM's Daewoo Group as a turbocharged world car. In fact the Volt may only be a smokescreen behind which GM is working day and night to develop a genuine game changer (for GM), a small cheap high performance (turbocharged) 4 passenger sedan to be made and sold globally.
Toyota is being much more circumspect. No one in a region with snow, ice, or heavy rain and low temperatures is going to drive to work in a tiny 2 passenger car . In California with its much milder climate and mostly level roads as well as environmental activists spawned by such conditions it is likely that Toyota will sell or lease as many commuter cars as it cares to put on the market.
But Toyota's customers and fans have even now a range of electrified vehicles to choose from in Toyota's lineup. There will be shortly several Prius models and there will be joined by additional Toyota branded models and Lexus models all of which are hybrids powered by nickel metal hydride batteries. GM has not put a single plug-in hybrid on the road yet, and even though it is announcing this week at the Detroit auto show that it will produce a range of models utilizing the same power train and battery as the Chevrolet Volt it is nonetheless true that as of today GM does not produce any lithium-ion or nickel metal hydride batteries in-house (Toyota produces all of its own batteries).
Toyota will bring the plug-in commuter car to market before GM introduces the Chevrolet Volt, and Toyota will thus be able to determine if there is a market for a short range limited capacity limited environmental range useable small car. Toyota will also be able to determine the market price range for such a car.
If the small plug-in car bombs in the market place or the car simply fails to perform due to an underdeveloped battery technology Toyota's flexibility will give it a far better chance than GM has to survive and go back to the drawing board if it is only a better battery that is needed.
GM has all of its eggs in one basket with regard to vehicle electrification. Toyota has a power train battery,the nickel metal hydride unit, already proven and is far ahead of GM in the development of a power train capable lithium ion battery.
I think that GM is going for broke while Toyota may well be able to weather the storm of a partial or even total failure of either the plug-in or battery only concept. Toyota has already proven that the hybrid using the NiMH battery can be successful and it is so far ahead of GM in that segment that GM has chosen essentially not to even try to compete.
I cannot believe that GM's management does not see that Toyota's marketing plan and skills are far better than the path down which GM has chosen to travel. I do believe that it is government interference from Washington that is blind to Toyota's business model, because of the influence of global warming alarmists and of environmental activists.
America will not survive as the great economic power unless it returns to creating wealth by innovating and manufacturing while developing domestic raw material self sufficiency. This is too complicated for Washington's elites to comprehend. It is well understood in Tokyo, Beijing, Delhi, and Moscow.
