Summary
People don't watch commercials. We've been hearing it, living it perhaps, for years. This industry is one of the greatest house of cards ever built. And what do networks do in order to save a multi-billion dollar industry built on continually rising CPMs, shrinking market share, and consumers who don't watch commercials? They do what anyone would do, spin, manipulate, ignore, dismiss, any evidence to the contrary in order to perserve their way of live. In order for advertisers to return to networks, networks need to evolve not just thier reporting systems, but at their root, they need to evolve their content.
Analysis
Call me a cynic. But how does an industry, and specific to the 4 major networks, continue to raise CPMs on a medium with shrinking market share. Why is there no convincing data ousting network (and cable) TV buys as the biggest sham in media sales? It leaves one to speculate.
The TV industry needs to change. It needs to change because its a crime to see media dollars flood a market that even your average consumer could tell you doesn't hold the same value to them as it did 20 years ago.
This change can't come from reporting changes, or new measurment tools, or studies. All of those are manipulated and contrived and easily spun into an advantage for key stakeholders. Instead, take your own litmus test. Do you watch TV commericals? My friends and I don't (to varying degrees mind you). In general, we flip channels, buy DVDs, play on the internet while watching TV, read magazines - just about anything we can think of to occupy ourselves during commerical breaks.
No in order for this industry to change, and the CPM and upfront wars to stop content will have to change. Specifically, we consume conent in 7 minute segments on TV for a half hour to an hour at a time. Storylines exist as never-ending series, in the same spot, at the same time. Consumers need this to change.
What I wait to see, is a new model of storytelling. Once networks hear pitches from content producers who truly understand the evolved media consumption of consumers, networks will diversify thier content. It will take 5 years, but the characters owned by networks will live dramatically different lifecycles that include web only TV series, downloadable shorts to you DVR, and Interactive content that exists on multiple screens and tells stories differently. And hopefully, advertisers can drive networks to adapt faster.
