Tivo v. Echostar: Decision Coming

Implications: Almost everyone seems to expect that Tivo will (any day now) win its patent appeal against Echostar, and with that I also agree.  But what about damages?  Even though the jury awarded only roughly $74M, I think the appeals process will end with a much bigger pricetag.  Indeed, I'm expecting a number closer to $150M.

Analysis: Tivo and Echostar engaged in a high-profile patent case nearly two years ago, but Tivo's victory has been on hold ever since as Echostar has attempted to appeal various issues on the merits.  Oral argument late last year seemed to favor Tivo, as did the briefs; and now enough time has passed that an official decision from the appeals court is surely imminent.

A Tivo victory won't surprise too many people; but what might be surprising is how much money is already at stake.  The jury award was roughly $74M.  But that number has mushroomed as time has marched on, because every month Echostar clocks not only silly things like interest payments but more substantial things like on-going royalties for the infringements that have continued during the appeal.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that an award in the next three weeks would tip the scales at roughly $150M, plus a forward-looking injunction that would likely turn into an even bigger forward-looking settlement figure.

The Federal Circuit does not have any specific deadline to rule; but expect news soon, as this one is fully ripe.