Timing Isn’t Everything, It Just Separates The Winners From The Losers

Implications: Domestic core system vendors vs. International core system vendors.  Every week I read about a new sale made by either i-flex solutions, TEMENOS, Infosys, Misys, or Tata Consultancy, and they are mostly significant sales.  But their marketplace is not the U.S.  There’s a more active market out there called “the rest of the world.”   While this robust new business activity is taking place, U.S. vendors are still looking for the passport office.

Analysis:  I believe the top core vendors in the U.S. (FISV, FIS, MV and JKHY) missed the boat by not seeing early signs of new opportunities about ten years ago.  But who can blame them?  Ten years ago, core business in the U.S. was still churning at about 8% of the population.  Now that the rate is only 3%, it seems the opportunity to jump into the international arena has diminished as a result of stronger foreign competition.Maybe there’s a solution.  Oracle found it as an 86% owner of i-flex.  Metavante partially found it by “dating” TEMENOS.  Do I hear a bid for Misys, Infosys or Tata?  There’s one great synergy that I believe is possible if domestic and international tech vendors got together.  The domestic guys know the banking business better than anyone, even though their system architecture is far too old.  The international guys have modern day system architecture, but still have a lot to learn about how to make a bank really work efficiently.