Summary
The nuclear energy market is growing fastest in developing countries. Yet security threats from the proliferation of nuclear weapons might become an important barrier to the global expansion of civil nuclear energy. US thorium nuclear fuel technology - rather than uranium or plutonium MOX nuclear reactor fuels - may be the ideal solution for Arabic states. The market may be worth $41 billion in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) alone.
Analysis
The use of civil nuclear power is set for major expansion amongst the world's developing economies. The pursuit of nuclear energy technology offers energy-hungry developing nations access to reliable large scale electricity supplies with very low carbon emissions. But this climate friendly energy solution comes at a security price. Historically one third of the 30 countries that possess civil nuclear energy programmes have weaponized them. Security threats from the proliferation of nuclear weapons might become an important
barrier to the further expansion of the global nuclear energy market. Nowhere is this tension more acute than in the Persian Gulf. The commercial use of proliferation-resistant thorium rather than uranium as a nuclear fuel technology might significantly reduce the threat of plutonium weaponization in Arab states. The strong business and diplomatic case for wider use of thorium nuclear fuel technology in the Middle East may overtake the use of strategically problematic enriched uranium fuel technology. The petro dollar power of the six pro-western Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states would easily allow them to leapfrog beyond Iran to acquire the latest western nuclear energy technology. This strategy is already being played out in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and its neighbors Saudi Arabia and Jordan, both keen purchasers of western high technology, may soon follow. The UAE intends to construct up to 20 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear power station capacity to help meet a forecast national energy demand of 40GW by 2020. The commercial value of the nuclear technology transfer to the UAE has been unofficially estimated at $41 billion. Thorium may prove to be the fuel of choice to power this newly emerging market.
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.