September 24, 2008
There is no problem here for AIG nor risk to Airbus, Boeing or others
Analysis of:
AIG draws up list of assets for sale in attempt to prevent nationalisation | business.timesonline.co.uk
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Implications: AIG has sufficient assets to manage all of it's businesses effectively and efficiently.
They also have more than adequate capability to buy itself back, if you like, from the US Treasury in short order.
All of this is dependent upon the current stabilization plan presented by Treasury and the Fed to Congress is approved and implemented in a timely fashion.
Analysis: The case with AIG is fairly far removed from the current debacles taking place at other financial entities, some now gone, others still with us.
What AIG faced was a liquidity issue that was being caused by the depreciation of it's stock price in the markets resulting from packs of institutional short sellers bearing down on the stock of AIG for no other reason than to generate profits from selling short.
This price deceleration could be viewed by all leading up to the eventual downgrade of AIG's credit ratings that would have produced an unwarranted and unnecessary bankruptcy filing of the company and provoke a worldwide meltdown of many different markets where AIG is a vital and integral participant.
Once Treasury stepped in and basically halted this action, AIG was given the time it needed to make the adjustments that will be needed to stabilize, liquify to the point of need and preserve their businesses worldwide and manage it in an orderly fashion.
To date, the Treasury has not yet assumed ownership of any of the 79.9% of the Company their actions offer and it is entirely possible that this will never have to occur.
AIG will quickly realize sales of certain business units and at values that would not reflect the "firesale" prices non-action on the part of Treasury would have provoked and via those sales get out from under the boot of any Governmental organization.
So, whether these businesses remain a part of the reconstituted AIG or as part of another entity that has acquired them from AIG, each will be viable and in some aspects, even more competitive and profitable and capable of completing their missions.
All of the above being stated is of course, very dependent upon the larger plan Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke have presented to Congress for approval. If this is not done and done soon, the world is going to face a dramatic shift in the dynamics of capital, finance and economics that I do not believe they are prepared to face and then, of course, AIG and Airbus and Boeing are going to be the least of anyone's concern.
Analysis: The case with AIG is fairly far removed from the current debacles taking place at other financial entities, some now gone, others still with us.
What AIG faced was a liquidity issue that was being caused by the depreciation of it's stock price in the markets resulting from packs of institutional short sellers bearing down on the stock of AIG for no other reason than to generate profits from selling short.
This price deceleration could be viewed by all leading up to the eventual downgrade of AIG's credit ratings that would have produced an unwarranted and unnecessary bankruptcy filing of the company and provoke a worldwide meltdown of many different markets where AIG is a vital and integral participant.
Once Treasury stepped in and basically halted this action, AIG was given the time it needed to make the adjustments that will be needed to stabilize, liquify to the point of need and preserve their businesses worldwide and manage it in an orderly fashion.
To date, the Treasury has not yet assumed ownership of any of the 79.9% of the Company their actions offer and it is entirely possible that this will never have to occur.
AIG will quickly realize sales of certain business units and at values that would not reflect the "firesale" prices non-action on the part of Treasury would have provoked and via those sales get out from under the boot of any Governmental organization.
So, whether these businesses remain a part of the reconstituted AIG or as part of another entity that has acquired them from AIG, each will be viable and in some aspects, even more competitive and profitable and capable of completing their missions.
All of the above being stated is of course, very dependent upon the larger plan Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke have presented to Congress for approval. If this is not done and done soon, the world is going to face a dramatic shift in the dynamics of capital, finance and economics that I do not believe they are prepared to face and then, of course, AIG and Airbus and Boeing are going to be the least of anyone's concern.
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