The next wave of nukes

Implications: A "new wave" of nuclear power reactors has arrived.  Submittal of license applications by five major Utility companies and the anticipated submittal of 14-15 more will jump start the next round of nuclear power in the US.  Coupled with the worldwide growth of the industry, the impact on the suppliers in value chain of the industry will be substantial.  In the US alone, this represents 25-30 new reactors to be started soon with a total value of almost $100B.  Worldwide, there are over 30 reactors under construction and over 100 more in the planning stage.  Most are GEN III reactors patterned after the Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) that successfully and safely produce 16% of the world's electricity.  Global warming concerns will p[probably accelerate the current trends.  Solar/thermal plants and wind farms will play a role in the future of clean energy, but only nuclear can provide 24/7 base load that will meet power demands. 

Analysis: The "new wave" of nuclear power reactors has finally arrived.  After a 29 year lull, Construction and Operating licenses (COLs) have been submitted by five major Utility companies.  Others are planned over the next 12 months and this will likely result in a total of 18-20 applications for 25-30 new GEN III units.  Construction will likely start in 2011 or 2012, but commitments to some suppliers will come sooner.  Seeking regulatory approval is no trivial matter.  Duke, for example, plans on spending $160M developing its proposal and site for its new Lee Nuclear Station in South Carolina.  As is true with many other Utility companies, Duke is seeking to include these costs in its rate base.
Although cost estimates vary, a pair of new GEN III reactors is likely to cost $5-6B.  The units planned by Duke will and made by Westinghouse/Toshiba will produce 1117 MW (electrical).  Others from GE and Areva are likely to be slightly larger.  The GEN III designs feature several improvements over past designs including:
    -Independent cooling systems;
    -Multiple back-up power sources;
    -Digital controls;
    -Passive safety features;
    -Hardened concrete containment; and 
    -Modular construction.
In the US, the COL process  is likely to take 36 - 42 months and a oomparable time for construction.  However, long lead time items, such as low alloy steel forgings, must be ordered before the start of constuction.  Similarly, construction company commitments are already underway.
Outside the US, 30 new reactors are underway in China, France, Finland, Japan, Russia, Bulgaria, Ukraine and elsewhere.  The nuclear business must be regarded as a worldwide one and the value chain of suppliers will be large.  That will be the subject of my next analysis.