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September 7, 2007

The iPhone – is it fair to be the first?

Analysis of: Apple stock falls after iPhone price cut | news.yahoo.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Cathy Stauffer, FounderCathy Stauffer
Founder, Cathy Stauffer Consulting
Implications: Is the privilege of being one of the first to get a highly anticipated, highly coveted item worth paying a premium?  Going into it, many (most) would say yes. After the fact people get agitated. So Apple did something - offered an in-store credit – most would prefer cash - and even went so far as to apologize to customers. Didn’t have to do this but they did and it was the right and fitting thing for the situation.

Analysis: So what’s fair ?

Is it fair that I pay $1300 for a bad coach seat on United to NY and sit next to a guy that paid less than $300 because I booked mine a couple weeks later?
Is it fair that my neighbor paid $1000+ for a Wii on eBay last December vs. my other neighbor that stood in line at Target in January and got it for $249?

While many would say those examples are different, they really aren’t.
Second only to the hype around the highly anticipated iPhone release was the talk about how soon the prices would come down. Most bets were on Christmas ’07 – but it came three months earlier than anyone guessed. Alright –it was not if it was going to happen, but when it was going to happen.  

The people that bought early on are not getting the shaft. Value is in the eye of the beholder.  If it was worth to you to buy, you bought it and you’ve no doubt been experiencing near celebrity-like status (at least in your own mind) for two blissful months. Now it’s time for the people that didn’t buy early to get smug, not about being first but about being smart. So what? You will always be one of the first, and didn’t you know you were paying for that to begin with?

Apple and others clearly can’t make a habit of this( launching and reducing the price 30% within hardly 60 days), but Apple is surely smart enough to know that,  and in this unusual case people paid for the privilege to be first and knew it, whether they want to admit that or not now.


P.S. What is AT&T doing?  I don’t know – they have been strikingly quiet.  With the data plan required to support the iPhone features, the ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) associated with each iPhone should be significantly higher than average, so these should be particularly valued customers and Apple should be a valuable lead source, but they don’t seem to be compelled to step in with any sort of anything.  Too bad. Maybe a phone-less iPhone isn’t such a bad idea.



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