Summary
The industry trend is to maximize 30 million dollar production budgets with incremental income through XBox live and downloadable add on packs.
The customer will reject this model with few exceptions.
Analysis
We have 30 million dollar titles where the pressure to hit release dates is so difficult, the studios already outsource their production to indie's for posthumous content. Something that studios desperately need to extend the life cycle of their games and reach profitability.
But gamers, the most savvy of consumers, will eventually reject this model. Simply because, as the author suggest, there is no innovation - just more levels and new weapons packs for the same game rehashed.
By 2009 we are going to see a market where updated graphics wont move product. The experience needs to evolve. Add on packs wont do that. Increasing production budgets with Actors and music licensing wont do that. It's game development that has pushed the industry; and ultimately it will continue to push it. The 100-120 dollars gamers will have to spend to get all of the content from a beloved franchise will reduce the number of games they are willing to buy. Eventually, the early adopters, the true gamers, will migrate to more "hybrid" gaming/entertainment experiences that evolve.
