Summary
* Will the Bush administration or the next administration approve approve any airlines attempt to merge? * Unions and communities will fight any merger attempts. * Other carriers like American and Southwest will likewise lobby against any mergers. * Premises for mergers is not valid since there are too many profitable network carrier that are smaller than any of the individual carriers that are in play.
Analysis
The notion that any kind of airline consolidation in the US involving Delta, United, Northwest, or Continental will occur is not a foregone conclusion. While their are many investment bankers that want this to occur for selfish reasons, there are many other powerful groups against such consolidation. Not the least of which is the Justice, Commerce and Transportation departments. It won't matter whether it is the current Bush Administration or the next administration, either one will have a difficult approving any such rumored merger combination. If you believe that consolidation will limit competition, cost cities jobs, raise fares and close airline hubs like Memphis, Cincinnati, Cleveland and/or Salt Lake City then you will have the unions, communities, industry trade groups against any mergers that seek approval. (I assume any Congressional intervention will cancel one another)
If you do not buy into the fact that only consolidation can save these carriers (that 3 out of 4) which recently existed bankruptcy and thus already lowered their cost then you will have all of the above groups lobbying against any mergers plus Southwest, American and USAirways. While Southwest is already on record of looking to participate in any consolidation, as a practical matter their choices will be limited. American is not about to give up its "largest carrier in the world" status without a fight and I do believe they would have little interest in trying to assimilate USAirways into the AA given that USAirways is still suffering a hang over from their America West merger.
Moreover, all those groups against any mergers will point to the fact that there are already many smaller profitable carriers in US, North America around the world.
In short, while I believe their will be attempted consolidation in the airline industry...that it will actually occur is as likely as the odds makers saying the Patriots will beat the Giants by twelve and half points in the Super Bowl
