Summary
The GM Volt will contain a battery pack technology that is largely unproven and largely untested to withstand automotive environmental and reliability requirements. In addition, the manufacturing of Lithium Ion battery packs on the scale that will be needed for Volt production is an environmentally unfriendly process that will offset much of the benefit of the Volt's "Green Friendly" marketability if Green saavvy consumers investigate the manufacturing process for this technology. The true cost of the Lithium Ion battery pack design, development, and piece price will have to be subsidized by GM, resulting in less "green" to the bottom line than any automotive company would like to see. GM's true hope is that "Green Hype" will lead to green dollars in the showroom.
Analysis
GM has made an aggressive statement and claim regarding the capability of the Volt and the timing of a vehicle that is road ready. Lithium ion battery pack technology is still largely unproven as a viable and reliable large scale replacement to power produced by a fossil fuel internal combustion engine. The discharge/recharge and heat dissipation properties of Lithium ion battery packs are problematic and unresolved, and the technology and test data is simply not sufficient to suggest that a passenger vehicle, ready for 7 to 10 years of product life under varied environmental conditions, would be ready for the consumer market by 2010. That is extremely aggressive, and flies against current battery incremental development. Most OEM's have suggested that PHEV - plug in hybrid vehicles - would be best suited for several years of real world testing in fleet conditions. Examples are Postal delivery vehicles, utility reader vehicles, or in-town taxi services. Hence, vehciles that are in a serviceable and accessible fleet, driving in constrained conditions, where both the vehicle and the environment can be observed and measured by the OEM's.
Also, GM must make sure that the smoke and mirrors are in place to distract an exceedingly well educated public from understanding the environmental impact of the entire production process for Lithium ion batteries - from mineral extraction through chemical processing through manufacturing. The existing battery manufacturing process is significantly environmentally unfriendly to render the environmental benfits of driving a first generation PHEV mute. GM had better hope that the consumer will feel so magnanimous about themselves while owning their PHEV, that they ignore the environmental toll extracted to put that vehicle in their driveway.
Finally, the very raw materials needed for Lithium ion battery development and manufacture are themselves becoming more expensive due to higher demand and limited manufacturing capacity. So GM will have to heavily subsidize this development, manufacture, and delivery with a subsequent impact to the GM green dollar bottomline. And this does not begin to account for the risk management that must be in place to protect against potential warranty costs of PHEV issues.
My assessment is that this will be too soon, too unproven, and too unprofitable to assure a 2010 launch.
