The Trouble with "One Solution" Answers

Implications: There is an interesting dichotomy in how most Americans, both the public and the leadership, address alternative energy.  We mouth the rhetoric of "there's no one answer" to replacing present energy conversion and then are as petulant as a child who got underwear instead of a bicycle for Christmas, when we don't get the one answer.  This goes for thin film solar photovoltaic technology.  There may be resource limitations, namely scarce trace elements (that's why they are called "trace" elements), that will not allow it to replace all of our energy infrastructure.  because it can't do that, it's meaningless.  That's the wrong way to think about this potentially huge energy conversion technology, and the wrong way to think about a portfolio of renewable energy applications.

Analysis: Mr. Lifton may be technically correct but he misses the strategic point that one type of photovoltaic cell, or technology, does not have to provide all of the answers to renewable energy production. Most of us still don't get that a portfolio of renewable energy applications is just that, a variety of applications, where no one will dominate. 

There will be a paradigm shift from stuff in the ground, whether uranium, coal, natural gas or petroleum, conveniently waiting to be mined, to harvesting sources of solar based energy.  This transition will be to a more ecological, niche oriented energy system, with no one source prevailing.  It will be an income based economy, not a boom and bust one.  Solar, wind, bioenergy, ocean and hydro power will have their niches.   Solar will use thermal and photovoltaic conversion, both concentrated and non-concentrated. 

Photovoltaic will see thin film and crystalline, silicon and non-silicon, based applications, for decades.  The photovoltaic industry will use scarce elements like tellurium and gallium to the tune of tens of thousands of megawatts per year, then reusing them as the products reach the end of the cycle.  Tens or hundreds of thousands of megawatts won't power the planet in itself, but it isn't chopped liver either.  The balance between cheaper thin film and more efficient crystalline will reach a competitive balance.  Emerging photovoltaic technologies that require neither silicon nor scarce elements will also have major commercial entry in about 20 years.  Besides technology, it's also who can run the better business model, otherwise Apple would have run Microsoft out of town decades ago.  As the World Series nears, remember it's hitting singles and moving runners along that wins, not home runs and strike outs.