The EU's quiet new leadership

The new President of the European Council, Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, and high representative for foreign and security policy, Catherine Ashton, are both low profile personalities in new high profile positions. Both also have limited EU and international experience. Van Rompuy's strength is his ability to build consensus.  Baroness Ashton, EU Trade Commissioner for the past year, may have the highest profile position of the two.

After much negotiation and behind the scenes animated discussions, the leaders of the 27 EU member governments have chosen the first permanent President of the European Council and the first EU high representative for foreign policy. Both new positions were established by the Lisbon Treaty, which at last takes effect December 1 after finally being approved by Irish voters in October and the Czech President earlier this month. 

 

The new President is Herman Van Rompuy, the current Belgian prime minister, who took over less than a year ago when his predecessor fell after a banking scandal. Belgium will certainly miss him. It may be many months before Belgium finds someone to replace him in more than a caretaker role. Any Flemish politician who is also the most popular politician in Belgium’s French speaking region must have unusual skills.  

 

Mr. Van Rompuy’s ability to cross political divides, build consensus and his low key manner are among the reasons he has the new job.  Analysts and observers have been saying for months that the new president position would go to someone whose strength was to preside, work with all sides and negotiate compromises. They argued that the heads of government had no interest in a president with a higher profile than their own (e.g., Tony Blair). Many in Brussels believe that has been the attitude of the Member States at least since Jacques Delors was President of the European Commission from 1985 - 1994, and cut a high profile indeed. That’s one reason why his successors, including recently reelected Commission President José Barroso, have been relatively low profile(ironically Barroso may now have the highest profile of any EU leader, at least at the outset of the new regime).. Van Rompuy is known to be a European "federalist", but he may well not too "out front" on that issue in his new position.

 

Chairing European Council meetings, i.e., the quarterly meetings of the heads of government is, so far, the only statutory duty the new President has, although he will represent EU leaders globally and represent the Council with other EU institutions. The six month rotating European Council presidency among the member states continues, even though the head of the member state government involved will no longer preside over the Council. Sweden now has the presidency; during Van Rompuy’s 2 ½ year term Spain, Belgium, Hungary, Poland and Denmark, in that order, will hold it.

 

The new high representative for foreign affairs and security policy has much more in the way of official duties. This new slot merges two high profile and high pressure portfolios, the Council’s existing high representative for common foreign and security policy, currently Javier Solana, and the Commission’s commissioner for external relations, currently Benita Ferrero-Waldner.  The incumbent will also be a vice president of the Commission.  It is, in effect, the EU's first foreign minister.

 

The choice of Britain’s Catherine Ashton, the EU’s trade commissioner for the last year, may be therefore somewhat surprising, since she appears to have limited foreign policy and large organization administrative experience. It is not quite so surprising, however, in the context of UK’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s push for Tony Blair for the position of President and the movement in the last several weeks to give UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband the post Baroness Ashton now has (Miliband declined, apparently preferring to compete for Labor Party chief after the next election).  Baroness Ashton was Leader of the House of Lords when she moved to Brussels last fall as her predecessor, Peter Mandelson, moved back to London.     As the EU’s de facto foreign minister, she may well have a much higher profile than Mr. Van Rompuy’s. She will also be responsible for setting up and managing the EU’s first foreign service, which some estimate could eventually number as many as 5,000 diplomats, a major task in itself, as well as have the authority to “propose defense measures”, a relatively new area of EU – level concern.  

 

When Henry Kissinger was Secretary of State he famously lamented, “Who do I call when I want to call Europe?” Hillary Clinton should not have that problem after December 1.