The 2010 Heavy Duty Diesel Engine Environment - Truck Manufacturer’s Setting Stage

Implications: There is a mixed message coming from the truck and engine manufacturers. I look at all this more from a buyers / operators standpoint and is something to consider when thinking about the future. My colleague Mr. Moser addresses the major engineering issues well, so I’ll comment on the marketing / operational issues a little further.

Analysis: The giant Mid-America Truck Show in Louisville was held last week with a surprising amount of activity. I guess it followed the expansive and recently renovated convention center more than freight or equipment sales levels. There were numerous points of interest, but the engine issues garnered considerable attention.

If one looked at the booth sizes of the major players, one could get the sense. Caterpillar and Cummins had their normal sizes (big), but Mercedes / Detroit Diesel’s display more than doubled from the past and right next to their Freightliner and Western Star trucks. Paccar had all of their engine models in a new display strategically placed between their Peterbilt and Kenworth displays.

Of special interest were two ongoing questions. The first was how the new ’07 engines were doing. The answers were mixed with each engine manufacturer saying theirs was fine, but truck manufacturers and some users saying that system integration issues and fuel mileage were not meeting expectations.

The other interesting discussion was again on 2010 emission approaches. As Mr. Moser noted, Navistar is the only truck manufacturer saying they will go exclusively with “aggressive” EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation). This leaves engine manufacturers Cummins and their MAN-partnered deal with EGR in their products. The Caterpillar engine (and Navistar deal) rumors continued - and the Cat folks keep saying they will be around in 2010 and most probably with SCR. Volvo is going with SCR (Selective Catalyst Reduction) with their engines in their trucks, but still will offer non-EGR engines from Cummins. Paccar’s new engines from DAF for heavy-duty and Cummins rebranded ones for mid-range will be SCR, but any high horsepower engines from Cummins will be EGR. The referenced article tells us the road Freightliner et al are heading down with SCR.

Confused? The market will figure it out with the truck manufacturers and I’m betting on SCR. Different integration philosophies are coming more into play with the new system complexities. I agree any fuel mileage bump with SCR will sell well, and I bet urea implementation will go better than many think. Marketing will play a big part in all this and Detroit Diesel has started the needed education!