Summary
Not only did EA ceo John Riccitiello get it wrong, but there's now another 500 pound gorilla in the room.
Analysis
John Riccitiello may be a bright guy and runs the number #1 game publishing business but he should probably stay out of predicting the future. In fact, EA has had a generally bad track record over the years underestimating Nintendo's new platforms and then being surprised when they do well.
This time the topic was consolidation within the game industry. After John announced on Thursday that we had seen the last of the big mergers for a while, Vivendi surprised us all by announcing a huge one, that will make their new combination with Activision, to be known as Activision Blizzard, a formidable rival in the game publishing business. Even more significant is the strength of their combined portfolio of games, including World of Warcraft with its the 9+ million online subscribers, Guitar Hero, and Call of Duty among others. According to the Wall Street Journal, Activision Blizzard's new pro forma revenues would bump EA's forecasted revenues back to #2.
In fact many people were wondering why they announced it publicly so early, unless it was about to leak. Maybe Vivendi just couldn't resist after hearing John's remarks. It's the kind of thing watching the presidential campaign season brings out of people.
In a way it's reminiscent of the end of a classic side-scrolling game, you defeat the hordes of enemies that attack you as you move through the level, only to find the big boss waiting for you in the last room and it takes many more hits to defeat him.
