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April 22, 2008

TURNING THE CORNER?

Analysis of: Study: Few can afford homes in LV | www.lvrj.com
This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Steve Bottfeld 
Principal, Marketing Solutions
Implications: March Las Vegas housing results can best be described as mildly disappointing. Although prices remained relatively stable and inventory continued decline, surprisingly, sales did not improve significantly. Although sales did not increase in March, there is sufficient anecdotal evidence (increasing traffic, multiple offers on specific properties) to suggest they will increase strongly over the next two quarters.  undefined undefined

Analysis: STABLE PRICES:Despite a great percentage of foreclosures in sales data, existing home prices barely wobbled. The $247,000 median price tag was just $1,000 below February and 13.9% below last year. Overall new home closing prices also slipped very slightly to $276,292, just 10.2% below last March.
Nearly the same result occurs for new home pricing when vertical is subtracted. The median price of a new single family home or non-vertical condominium was $266,135. That's $5,000 below last month, but 16.3% below last year.
Stable pricing is one leg that props up a faltering market.
DECLINING INVENTORY: Available (MLS) Listings reached the lowest point in 13 months, dipping to 22,181. (That is a real positive! ) The number of active subdivisions slid for the eighth consecutive month to 504. New home permits inched up to 423, but that's a 72.7% decrease from last March.
Another leg propping up a faltering market is declining inventory.
SALES REMAIN STATIONARY: Both new home sales and existing home sales reached year-high marks in March. Unfortunately, neither total could be considered stellar. New home sales edged over the thousand mark (1,076) for the first time this year. That's still 40.3% below last year. And existing home sales reached 980 - 62.8% below last March.
There were two bright spots in sales.
The first came from the Hi-Rise market. The 178 vertical closings is the best total since September and may mark some new vitality as Trump, Allure, and Palms Place continue closing activity.
The second bright spot was the average sale per subdivision. For the first time this year, new home communities averaged more than 2.13 sales per month.
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE: The question is: are we on the bottom?
The answer is: Until sales begin to improve, we are. And, sales look like they are on the cusp of upward movement.


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