TSRA: It's Not AMKR, but the '419

Implications: Tessera continues to focus public attention on its arbitration with Amkor.  But the real action these next few months will not come from that corner.  Instead, the real action is going to be the looming final decision about TSRA's '419 patent.

Analysis: Tessera has kept the market well informed about its otherwise-confidential arbitration with Amkor.  But the news is only so interesting in that everyone seems to fully expect a Tessera win.  The reason is that Tessera holds a procedural advantage in arbitration: the arbitrators have to presume that TSRA's patents are valid.  With that thumb on the scale, it would be downright disappointing if TSRA were not able to win the fight and collect the monies due.

The more interesting struggle is the one happening at the Patent Office, where TSRA is right now defending its patents' validity in the context of a set of proceedings known as reexamination proceedings.  In reexamination, a patent enjoys no presumption; and so here the fight is more precarious, and TSRA has to defend its inventions on the merits rather than relying on procedural edges.

My own long-run view on all that is positive, mind you.  But the near-term news is likely to be poor.  After all, the '419 patent -- which is the one that attracted all the attention a few months ago -- is right now queued up for what looks to be a final rejection.  That would open the door to an appeal; and, as I say, I like TSRA's chances on that appeal; but news of the '419 being definitively rejected will be the dominant headline this summer, not the largely expected good news about AMKR.