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March 14, 2008

THE REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE MALL HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXAGERATED

This analysis is solely the work of the author. It has not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
Analysis By:
Kenneth Leonard, PrincipalKenneth Leonard
Principal, Leonard Associates
Implications: While Mr. Burns correctly points out to the GLG reader who may have missed the news, that the real estate bubble has finally burst and that the country is in the midst of a recession, he totally fails to establish his main theme in this and previous articles, that the death of the Mall is close at hand. It should also be noted that the article he chose to analyze is also from a reporter known for gloom and doom writing. Although there is nothing wrong with belaboring the obvious economic realities that recessions cause many people to spend less money in higher priced retail stores and more money in discount stores, it is no more relevant than commenting that the tide has gone out and many ships are floating lower in the water. Is Mr. Burns implying that when the tide comes back in, certain ships will no longer be able to float? If he is, he should be chastised for failing to cite adequate reasons for his conclusions.

Analysis: From time immemorial there have been weather cycles and business cycles. These cycles have brought feast and famine interspersed with many years of normal activity.

We are now in a recessionary business cycle and stores and shopping centers that cater to the middle and upper middle classes are reporting basically "flat" or slightly declining sales. It has happened before and will happen again.

As also happens when the artificially fueled " financial feasting" ends, the Darwinian inevitability of "survival of the fittest" becomes more pronounced. As Darwin correctly pointed out, this does not mean that ALL species die out when there is a cycle of less prosperity. It simply means that some of the weaker members of the group may fail.

This is as true with the animal kingdom as it is with Malls. In fact it is a well known phenomenon that poorly conceived , poorly tenanted and weaker malls have been failing since mall developers ran out of virgin trade areas and started invading the trade areas of weaker malls with bigger and stronger malls. This will continue to happen and when it does I am confident that there will be many observers of the death of weaker malls and weaker retailers quick to comment that "all malls are dying" or "all mid-priced retailers are going out of business".

Other Analyses of the Same Source Article:
How do you like them malls now?
March 10, 2008, Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments

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