Summary
History shows us the the enterprise drags the carriers to advance their network. History shows that TDM based technology is expensive. Customers demand Ethernet hand off with MPLS. There is no confusion for customers between Ethernet and MPLS, unless created by the throw backs who want to hold on to TDM technology. Ethernet will win, period. The focus is on that, and will be. No customer wants expensive carrier bottle necks to limit their access to fast speeds, and applicaitons.
Analysis
Fast rewind to 1998. NBX and Selsius introduce the first IP PBXs that will change history of IP verses TDM switching. We need to understand who won the battle. Was it TDM, or Ethernet for the enterprise? Ethernet wins, Nortel is in chapter 11. For years arguements were made the IP voice had problems, and would not win, or would take 30 years to adopt. No one could control quality with IP. We have heard all the stories that are not accurate once the IP Ethernet based voice technology was engineered and adopted.
Fast rewind a bit further to the mid seventies. Analog PBX begin to see competition from "digital" PBX controled by a full blown computer (Rolm Corporation) Who won the battle of the new verses old technology? Computer controlled, digital systems won the enterprise over.
Why is this history lesson important? The technology change in the 70s drove the carrier change in following years. Carriers were forced to modernize their network for new services and applications. Same is true today, where IP based systems for the enterprise are driving th carriers to migrate to true IP Ethernet based designs. The "conversion" of massive "bonded" TDM channels into high speed data links is rediculous and costly way to run the carrier railroad. With the new technologies that allow for Ethernet transmission on copper, fiber, and the last mile, Ethernet to the customer (without conversion from TDM) will win, period. This puts MPLS and other technologies at risk. They will be left on the ash heap of history. The logic of engineering, manufacturing standards, resource skill set, will force Ethernet based technology as the main stream topology for the carriers. Why convert TDM based technology (which was designed for voice) to transmit the overwhelming volume of data today and into the future?
There is no confusion to the issue for the customer. The only confustion is created by those who want to hold onto the past. When MPLS is delivered today, what "interface" is the most likely for the customer? Ethernet connection is what the majority of customers want, and get. So, MPLS has to covert itself to go from TDM, to a Ethernet hand off. This will not be the final soluiton. Ethernet will take over.
