Summary
No surprise that LTE-Advanced and WiMAX 2.0 (IEEE 802.16m) should be candidates for IMT-Advanced broadband wireless systems, which are the real 4G in terms of performance objectives.
Analysis
The time frame for approval of IMT-Advanced standards is likely to be more sluggish than the impact of rapidly rising demands for more capacity in mobile networks as exemplified by the impact of the iPhone. In the meantime "pre 4G" or "3.xG" systems such as HSPA/HSPA+, 802.16e WiMAX (despite its patently bogus attempt to present itself as "4G"), and the first versions of LTE will have to fill the gap for several years. Designation as a network standard is no guarantee of widespread commercial success (see e.g. token ring LANs or ISDN). Success of a network technology in the market depends on the support and effectiveness of the business models of suppliers at all points along the value chain and the economics of its implementation, as well as the capabilities and customer acceptance of the services and applications which it enables. In the realm of wireless the attribution of spectrum is another critical factor. In terms of sheer RAN capabilities both 802.16m WiMAX and LTE-Advanced are not strongly differentiated from each other. But given all the other operational, regulatory and business factors that will affect the relative market sizes of these two technologies there is little doubt that LTE will be the big winner in the medium and long term (five to ten years).
This author consults with leading institutions through GLG
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
